Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- Case KeenumPassing23/36, 229 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Devin SingletaryRushing26 CAR, 121 YDS
- Noah BrownReceiving8 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
Titans- Will LevisPassing17/26, 199 YDS, 1 INT
- Tyjae SpearsRushing9 CAR, 30 YDS
- Treylon BurksReceiving3 REC, 62 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT0:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 54 Yd Field Goal19–16
- Q43:03Noah Brown 3 Yd pass from Case Keenum (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)16–16
- Q47:28Nick Folk 45 Yd Field Goal9–16
- Q32:42Ka'imi Fairbairn 53 Yd Field Goal9–13
- Q36:27Ka'imi Fairbairn 27 Yd Field Goal6–13
- Q20:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 23 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q213:56Elijah Molden 44 Yd Interception Return (Nick Folk Kick)0–13
- Q17:09Will Levis 1 Yd Run (Nick Folk PAT failed)0–6
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:09Will Levis 1 Yd Run (Nick Folk PAT failed)HOU 0 – 6 TEN · TEN 67% → 80% +13TEN 67% → 80%+13 pts
- Q213:56Elijah Molden 44 Yd Interception Return (Nick Folk Kick)HOU 0 – 13 TEN · TEN 80% → 91% +11TEN 80% → 91%+11 pts
- Q47:28Nick Folk 45 Yd Field GoalHOU 9 – 16 TEN · TEN 81% → 92% +11TEN 81% → 92%+11 pts
- Q43:03Noah Brown 3 Yd pass from Case Keenum (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 16 – 16 TEN · HOU 2% → 46% +44HOU 2% → 46%+44 pts
- OT0:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 54 Yd Field GoalHOU 19 – 16 TEN · HOU 42% → 100% +58HOU 42% → 100%+58 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Titans 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEN 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEN -4.5
- TEN 66%
- Fair odds
- TEN -212
- HOU +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 18.8 – 24.1 TEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −128 | +24 | HOU: Case Keenum, usually C.J. Stroud · TEN: Will Levis, usually Ryan Tannehill (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TEN +118 Elo | TEN 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEN 72.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEN 68.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.1 | Points scored | 18.526th of 32 |
| 16th of 3221.5 | Points allowed | 21.717th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −3.224th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.58 | Yards per play | 5.1020th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.39 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2617th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–4 | Road vs home | 4–17th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.