Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Joe FlaccoPassing34/46, 307 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Kareem HuntRushing8 CAR, 26 YDS, 1 TD
- David NjokuReceiving7 REC, 93 YDS
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing16/21, 274 YDS, 3 TD
- Devin SingletaryRushing13 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- Nico CollinsReceiving6 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q413:27Devin Singletary 19 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)14–45
- Q34:06Christian Harris 36 Yd Interception Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)14–38
- Q36:05Steven Nelson 82 Yd Interception Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)14–31
- Q21:11Dalton Schultz 37 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)14–24
- Q212:00Brevin Jordan 76 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)14–17
- Q212:18Kareem Hunt 11 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Riley Patterson Kick)14–10
- Q10:11Nico Collins 15 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–10
- Q12:09Kareem Hunt 1 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)7–3
- Q15:29Ka'imi Fairbairn 21 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:09Kareem Hunt 1 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)CLE 7 – 3 HOU · CLE 39% → 58% +20CLE 39% → 58%+20 pts
- Q10:11Nico Collins 15 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)CLE 7 – 10 HOU · HOU 41% → 61% +20HOU 41% → 61%+20 pts
- Q212:18Kareem Hunt 11 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Riley Patterson Kick)CLE 14 – 10 HOU · CLE 38% → 59% +21CLE 38% → 59%+21 pts
- Q212:00Brevin Jordan 76 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)CLE 14 – 17 HOU · HOU 41% → 62% +21HOU 41% → 62%+21 pts
- Q21:11Dalton Schultz 37 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)CLE 14 – 24 HOU · HOU 63% → 82% +20HOU 63% → 82%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Texans 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1
- HOU 54%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 21.6 – 22.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +27 | +13 | CLE: Joe Flacco, usually Deshaun Watson · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +25 Elo | HOU 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3223.3 | Points scored | 22.213th of 32 |
| 13th of 3221.3 | Points allowed | 20.811th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+2.0 | Margin | +1.412th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.81 | Yards per play | 5.3713th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.57 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2115th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 6–37th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.