Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Jeff DriskelPassing13/26, 166 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Pierre Strong Jr.Rushing14 CAR, 65 YDS
- David BellReceiving4 REC, 68 YDS, 2 TD
Bengals- Jake BrowningPassing18/24, 156 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Joe MixonRushing14 CAR, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- Charlie JonesReceiving3 REC, 49 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:34David Bell 24 Yd pass from Jeff Driskel (Riley Patterson Kick)14–31
- Q48:45David Bell 31 Yd pass from Jeff Driskel (Riley Patterson Kick)7–31
- Q33:32Andrei Iosivas 7 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)0–31
- Q21:55Evan McPherson 45 Yd Field Goal0–24
- Q29:19Andrei Iosivas 3 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)0–21
- Q10:48Joe Mixon 6 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)0–14
- Q16:07Joe Mixon 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:07Joe Mixon 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)CLE 0 – 7 CIN · CIN 51% → 69% +18CIN 51% → 69%+18 pts
- Q10:48Joe Mixon 6 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)CLE 0 – 14 CIN · CIN 70% → 85% +15CIN 70% → 85%+15 pts
- Q29:19Andrei Iosivas 3 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)CLE 0 – 21 CIN · CIN 86% → 95% +9CIN 86% → 95%+9 pts
- Q21:55Evan McPherson 45 Yd Field GoalCLE 0 – 24 CIN · CIN 97% → 98% +2CIN 97% → 98%+2 pts
- Q33:32Andrei Iosivas 7 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)CLE 0 – 31 CIN · CIN >99% → >99% +0CIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bengals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -0.5
- CIN 49%
- Fair odds
- CIN -102
- CLE +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 22.5 – 22.6 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −34 | +2 | CLE: Jeff Driskel, usually Deshaun Watson · CIN: Jake Browning, usually Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +8 Elo | CLE 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3223.9 | Points scored | 20.920th of 32 |
| 11th of 3220.7 | Points allowed | 23.121st of 32 |
| 8th of 32+3.2 | Margin | −2.222nd of 32 |
| 28th of 324.82 | Yards per play | 5.1618th of 32 |
| 1st of 324.52 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1132nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 16th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 5–310th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.