Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Jake BrowningPassing19/33, 197 YDS, 1 TD
- Joe MixonRushing21 CAR, 65 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving3 REC, 41 YDS
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing21/29, 245 YDS, 1 TD
- Isiah PachecoRushing18 CAR, 130 YDS
- Rashee RiceReceiving5 REC, 127 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:59Harrison Butker 46 Yd Field Goal17–25
- Q46:18Harrison Butker 48 Yd Field Goal17–22
- Q414:09Harrison Butker 24 Yd Field Goal17–19
- Q34:31Harrison Butker 27 Yd Field Goal17–16
- Q20:35Harrison Butker 43 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q23:44Harrison Butker 54 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q26:23Jake Browning 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)17–7
- Q211:29Joe Mixon 7 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)10–7
- Q12:58Isiah Pacheco 8 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)3–7
- Q16:21Evan McPherson 34 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:58Isiah Pacheco 8 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)CIN 3 – 7 KC · KC 47% → 66% +19KC 47% → 66%+19 pts
- Q211:29Joe Mixon 7 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 10 – 7 KC · CIN 33% → 54% +21CIN 33% → 54%+21 pts
- Q26:23Jake Browning 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 17 – 7 KC · CIN 55% → 75% +21CIN 55% → 75%+21 pts
- Q414:09Harrison Butker 24 Yd Field GoalCIN 17 – 19 KC · KC 48% → 63% +15KC 48% → 63%+15 pts
- Q46:18Harrison Butker 48 Yd Field GoalCIN 17 – 22 KC · KC 67% → 85% +18KC 67% → 85%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -1.5
- KC 56%
- Fair odds
- KC -127
- CIN +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 20.6 – 22.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −1 | — | CIN: Jake Browning, usually Joe Burrow · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +42 Elo | KC 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 56.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3221.2 | Points scored | 22.212th of 32 |
| 21st of 3223.0 | Points allowed | 17.73rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−1.8 | Margin | +4.56th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.27 | Yards per play | 5.519th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.06 | Yards allowed per play | 4.825th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 14th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 3–424th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.