Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Aidan O'ConnellPassing9/21, 62 YDS
- Zamir WhiteRushing22 CAR, 145 YDS
- Jakobi MeyersReceiving3 REC, 42 YDS
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing27/44, 235 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Patrick MahomesRushing10 CAR, 53 YDS
- Rashee RiceReceiving6 REC, 57 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:42Justin Watson 7 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)20–14
- Q30:24Daniel Carlson 35 Yd Field Goal20–7
- Q24:48Jack Jones 33 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Bolden Run for Two-Point Conversion)17–7
- Q24:55Bilal Nichols 8 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)9–7
- Q27:34Isiah Pacheco 12 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)3–7
- Q11:18Daniel Carlson 24 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:18Daniel Carlson 24 Yd Field GoalLV 3 – 0 KC · LV 36% → 44% +8LV 36% → 44%+8 pts
- Q27:34Isiah Pacheco 12 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)LV 3 – 7 KC · KC 54% → 74% +21KC 54% → 74%+21 pts
- Q24:55Bilal Nichols 8 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)LV 9 – 7 KC · LV 26% → 44% +18LV 26% → 44%+18 pts
- Q24:48Jack Jones 33 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Bolden Run for Two-Point Conversion)LV 17 – 7 KC · LV 44% → 70% +25LV 44% → 70%+25 pts
- Q30:24Daniel Carlson 35 Yd Field GoalLV 20 – 7 KC · LV 85% → 92% +7LV 85% → 92%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -5.5
- KC 69%
- Fair odds
- KC -194
- LV +194 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 18.2 – 22.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +15 | — | LV: Aidan O'Connell, usually Jimmy Garoppolo · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +135 Elo | KC 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 66.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3218.9 | Points scored | 22.811th of 32 |
| 10th of 3220.0 | Points allowed | 17.53rd of 32 |
| 18th of 32−1.1 | Margin | +5.36th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.88 | Yards per play | 5.627th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.18 | Yards allowed per play | 4.886th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 3–321st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LV 0–1 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.