Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Easton StickPassing23/32, 257 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Isaiah SpillerRushing16 CAR, 50 YDS
- Joshua PalmerReceiving4 REC, 113 YDS, 1 TD
Raiders- Aidan O'ConnellPassing20/34, 248 YDS, 4 TD
- Zamir WhiteRushing17 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- Davante AdamsReceiving8 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:38Quentin Johnston 6 Yd pass from Easton Stick (Cameron Dicker Kick)21–63
- Q48:39Alex Erickson 13 Yd pass from Easton Stick (Cameron Dicker Kick)14–63
- Q414:31Jack Jones 16 Yd Interception Return (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–63
- Q30:00John Jenkins 44 Yd Fumble Return (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–56
- Q310:27Joshua Palmer 79 Yd pass from Easton Stick (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–49
- Q310:42Davante Adams 3 Yd pass from Jakobi Meyers (Daniel Carlson Kick)0–49
- Q20:31Tre Tucker 20 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)0–42
- Q23:50Brandon Bolden 26 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)0–35
- Q29:15Michael Mayer 11 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)0–28
- Q13:07Jakobi Meyers 22 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)0–21
- Q14:41Tre Tucker 30 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)0–14
- Q18:10Zamir White 1 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:10Zamir White 1 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)LAC 0 – 7 LV · LV 61% → 77% +16LV 61% → 77%+16 pts
- Q14:41Tre Tucker 30 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)LAC 0 – 14 LV · LV 77% → 89% +12LV 77% → 89%+12 pts
- Q13:07Jakobi Meyers 22 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)LAC 0 – 21 LV · LV 89% → 96% +6LV 89% → 96%+6 pts
- Q29:15Michael Mayer 11 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)LAC 0 – 28 LV · LV 97% → >99% +2LV 97% → >99%+2 pts
- Q23:50Brandon Bolden 26 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)LAC 0 – 35 LV · LV >99% → >99% +0LV >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raiders 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LV 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LV -2.5
- LV 60%
- Fair odds
- LV -161
- LAC +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 18.5 – 21.9 LV
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −86 | +4 | LAC: Easton Stick, usually Justin Herbert · LV: Aidan O'Connell, usually Jimmy Garoppolo (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LV +68 Elo | LV 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LV 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LV 61.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3221.7 | Points scored | 15.528th of 32 |
| 17th of 3221.7 | Points allowed | 19.99th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −4.427th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.20 | Yards per play | 4.7827th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.59 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1914th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 11th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 4–313th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 1–0 LV in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.