Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Jake BrowningPassing28/42, 335 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Joe MixonRushing11 CAR, 43 YDS
- Tee HigginsReceiving5 REC, 140 YDS, 1 TD
Steelers- Mason RudolphPassing17/27, 290 YDS, 2 TD
- Najee HarrisRushing19 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD
- George PickensReceiving4 REC, 195 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q46:57Chris Boswell 30 Yd Field Goal11–34
- Q30:00Evan McPherson 35 Yd Field Goal11–31
- Q39:38George Pickens 66 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Chris Boswell Kick)8–31
- Q311:11Tee Higgins 80 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Jake Browning Pass to Joe Mixon for Two-Point Conversion)8–24
- Q20:00Chris Boswell 50 Yd Field Goal0–24
- Q27:06Najee Harris 3 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)0–21
- Q214:21Calvin Austin III 7 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)0–14
- Q110:45George Pickens 86 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Chris Boswell Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:45George Pickens 86 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Chris Boswell Kick)CIN 0 – 7 PIT · PIT 33% → 51% +18PIT 33% → 51%+18 pts
- Q214:21Calvin Austin III 7 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)CIN 0 – 14 PIT · PIT 55% → 74% +19PIT 55% → 74%+19 pts
- Q27:06Najee Harris 3 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)CIN 0 – 21 PIT · PIT 78% → 91% +13PIT 78% → 91%+13 pts
- Q311:11Tee Higgins 80 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Jake Browning Pass to Joe Mixon for Two-Point Conversion)CIN 8 – 24 PIT · CIN 2% → 11% +9CIN 2% → 11%+9 pts
- Q39:38George Pickens 66 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Chris Boswell Kick)CIN 8 – 31 PIT · PIT 90% → 98% +8PIT 90% → 98%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bengals 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -6.5
- CIN 72%
- Fair odds
- CIN -210
- PIT +210 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 23.4 – 18.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −1 | −44 | CIN: Jake Browning, usually Joe Burrow · PIT: Mason Rudolph, usually Kenny Pickett (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +162 Elo | CIN 71.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 67.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3221.9 | Points scored | 15.928th of 32 |
| 20th of 3222.2 | Points allowed | 20.09th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −4.126th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.22 | Yards per play | 4.8027th of 32 |
| 31st of 326.01 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3521st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 4–419th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 0–1 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.