New York Jets at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Trevor SiemianPassing32/45, 261 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Breece HallRushing13 CAR, 84 YDS
- Garrett WilsonReceiving5 REC, 50 YDS
Browns- Joe FlaccoPassing19/29, 309 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Jerome FordRushing12 CAR, 64 YDS
- David NjokuReceiving6 REC, 134 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:54Riley Patterson 33 Yd Field Goal20–37
- Q48:50Greg Zuerlein 44 Yd Field Goal20–34
- Q20:00Greg Zuerlein 46 Yd Field Goal17–34
- Q21:25Jerome Ford 50 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Riley Patterson Kick)14–34
- Q22:02Jermaine Johnson 37 Yd Interception Return (Greg Zuerlein Kick)14–27
- Q26:15Elijah Moore 8 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Riley Patterson Kick)7–27
- Q12:01Ronnie Hickman 30 Yd Interception Return (Riley Patterson Kick)7–20
- Q14:43Kareem Hunt 7 Yd Run (Riley Patterson PAT failed)7–13
- Q18:06Breece Hall 21 Yd pass from Trevor Siemian (Greg Zuerlein Kick)7–7
- Q111:10Jerome Ford 7 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Riley Patterson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:10Jerome Ford 7 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Riley Patterson Kick)NYJ 0 – 7 CLE · CLE 73% → 86% +13CLE 73% → 86%+13 pts
- Q18:06Breece Hall 21 Yd pass from Trevor Siemian (Greg Zuerlein Kick)NYJ 7 – 7 CLE · NYJ 14% → 27% +13NYJ 14% → 27%+13 pts
- Q14:43Kareem Hunt 7 Yd Run (Riley Patterson PAT failed)NYJ 7 – 13 CLE · CLE 72% → 84% +12CLE 72% → 84%+12 pts
- Q12:01Ronnie Hickman 30 Yd Interception Return (Riley Patterson Kick)NYJ 7 – 20 CLE · CLE 84% → 93% +9CLE 84% → 93%+9 pts
- Q26:15Elijah Moore 8 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Riley Patterson Kick)NYJ 7 – 27 CLE · CLE 94% → 98% +4CLE 94% → 98%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Browns 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -8
- CLE 76%
- Fair odds
- CLE -282
- NYJ +282 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 17.0 – 24.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −15 | +14 | NYJ: Trevor Siemian, usually Aaron Rodgers · CLE: Joe Flacco, usually Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +202 Elo | CLE 76.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 73.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3215.4 | Points scored | 23.010th of 32 |
| 14th of 3221.0 | Points allowed | 20.712th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−5.6 | Margin | +2.38th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.29 | Yards per play | 4.6829th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.55 | Yards allowed per play | 4.461st of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 24th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 7–12nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.