Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Ryan TannehillPassing16/20, 168 YDS
- Derrick HenryRushing12 CAR, 42 YDS
- DeAndre HopkinsReceiving7 REC, 72 YDS
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing24/32, 213 YDS, 1 TD
- Devin SingletaryRushing16 CAR, 80 YDS
- Nico CollinsReceiving7 REC, 80 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:33Ka'imi Fairbairn 51 Yd Field Goal3–26
- Q39:35Ka'imi Fairbairn 27 Yd Field Goal3–23
- Q20:00Nick Folk 53 Yd Field Goal3–20
- Q24:17Ka'imi Fairbairn 38 Yd Field Goal0–20
- Q210:02Sheldon Rankins 13 Yd Fumble Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)0–17
- Q210:10Brevin Jordan 12 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)0–10
- Q17:17Ka'imi Fairbairn 28 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:17Ka'imi Fairbairn 28 Yd Field GoalTEN 0 – 3 HOU · HOU 65% → 73% +7HOU 65% → 73%+7 pts
- Q210:10Brevin Jordan 12 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)TEN 0 – 10 HOU · HOU 72% → 87% +15HOU 72% → 87%+15 pts
- Q210:02Sheldon Rankins 13 Yd Fumble Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)TEN 0 – 17 HOU · HOU 87% → 95% +8HOU 87% → 95%+8 pts
- Q24:17Ka'imi Fairbairn 38 Yd Field GoalTEN 0 – 20 HOU · HOU 96% → 98% +2HOU 96% → 98%+2 pts
- Q20:00Nick Folk 53 Yd Field GoalTEN 3 – 20 HOU · TEN 2% → 3% +2TEN 2% → 3%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Texans 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5.5
- HOU 69%
- Fair odds
- HOU -198
- TEN +198 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 19.0 – 23.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1391 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +21 | +13 | TEN: Will Levis, usually Ryan Tannehill · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +136 Elo | HOU 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 66.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3218.3 | Points scored | 21.915th of 32 |
| 14th of 3221.4 | Points allowed | 22.117th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−3.1 | Margin | −0.216th of 32 |
| 26th of 324.92 | Yards per play | 5.3912th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.18 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2618th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–6 | Road vs home | 5–310th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEN 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.