Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing25/36, 227 YDS, 2 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing16 CAR, 54 YDS
- Tyler LockettReceiving8 REC, 81 YDS
Titans- Ryan TannehillPassing18/26, 152 YDS
- Derrick HenryRushing19 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- Chig OkonkwoReceiving6 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:57Colby Parkinson 5 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)20–17
- Q43:21Derrick Henry 2 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)13–17
- Q412:10DK Metcalf 11 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)13–10
- Q39:53Jason Myers 27 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q23:18Nick Folk 33 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q210:48Jason Myers 28 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q214:14Chigoziem Okonkwo 12 Yd pass from Derrick Henry (Nick Folk Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:14Chigoziem Okonkwo 12 Yd pass from Derrick Henry (Nick Folk Kick)SEA 0 – 7 TEN · TEN 42% → 62% +20TEN 42% → 62%+20 pts
- Q39:53Jason Myers 27 Yd Field GoalSEA 6 – 10 TEN · SEA 30% → 40% +11SEA 30% → 40%+11 pts
- Q412:10DK Metcalf 11 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 13 – 10 TEN · SEA 32% → 70% +37SEA 32% → 70%+37 pts
- Q43:21Derrick Henry 2 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)SEA 13 – 17 TEN · TEN 20% → 84% +65TEN 20% → 84%+65 pts
- Q40:57Colby Parkinson 5 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 20 – 17 TEN · SEA 2% → 94% +91SEA 2% → 94%+91 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Seahawks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -3
- SEA 61%
- Fair odds
- SEA -144
- TEN +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 22.8 – 20.2 TEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | −11 | SEA: Geno Smith · TEN: Ryan Tannehill (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +81 Elo | SEA 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3221.4 | Points scored | 18.427th of 32 |
| 24th of 3223.9 | Points allowed | 21.517th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−2.5 | Margin | −3.125th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.42 | Yards per play | 4.9523rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.40 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2217th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 25th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 4–211th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.