Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing17/31, 143 YDS, 2 INT
- Jalen HurtsRushing13 CAR, 82 YDS, 2 TD
- A.J. BrownReceiving5 REC, 56 YDS
Seahawks- Drew LockPassing22/33, 208 YDS, 1 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing19 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- DK MetcalfReceiving5 REC, 78 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:28Jaxon Smith-Njigba 29 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Jason Myers Kick)17–20
- Q410:00Jason Myers 43 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q34:43Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)17–10
- Q310:05Kenneth Walker III 23 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)10–10
- Q21:42Jason Myers 26 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q26:20Jake Elliott 27 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q16:31Jalen Hurts 3 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:31Jalen Hurts 3 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 7 – 0 SEA · PHI 67% → 82% +15PHI 67% → 82%+15 pts
- Q310:05Kenneth Walker III 23 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)PHI 10 – 10 SEA · SEA 16% → 38% +22SEA 16% → 38%+22 pts
- Q34:43Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 17 – 10 SEA · PHI 61% → 85% +24PHI 61% → 85%+24 pts
- Q410:00Jason Myers 43 Yd Field GoalPHI 17 – 13 SEA · SEA 10% → 21% +11SEA 10% → 21%+11 pts
- Q40:28Jaxon Smith-Njigba 29 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Jason Myers Kick)PHI 17 – 20 SEA · SEA <1% → 98% +98SEA <1% → 98%+98 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Eagles 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -6
- PHI 70%
- Fair odds
- PHI -215
- SEA +215 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 26.1 – 20.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1593 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −70 | PHI: Jalen Hurts · SEA: Drew Lock, usually Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +150 Elo | PHI 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 68.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3226.3 | Points scored | 21.518th of 32 |
| 28th of 3224.7 | Points allowed | 24.525th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+1.6 | Margin | −2.921st of 32 |
| 11th of 325.44 | Yards per play | 5.4510th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.42 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4624th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 4th of 325–2 | Road vs home | 4–210th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.