Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing20/26, 264 YDS, 2 TD
- Devin SingletaryRushing24 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- Nico CollinsReceiving9 REC, 195 YDS, 1 TD
Colts- Gardner Minshew IIPassing13/24, 141 YDS
- Jonathan TaylorRushing30 CAR, 188 YDS, 1 TD
- Josh DownsReceiving3 REC, 48 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:01Cameron Johnston Out of Bounds in End Zone. SAFETY23–19
- Q46:20Devin Singletary 3 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn PAT failed)23–17
- Q413:33Matt Gay 35 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q33:39Ka'imi Fairbairn 51 Yd Field Goal17–14
- Q39:56Jonathan Taylor 49 Yd Run (Gardner Minshew Pass to Mo Alie-Cox for Two-Point Conversion)14–14
- Q20:35Matt Gay 52 Yd Field Goal14–6
- Q21:57Andrew Beck 1 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)14–3
- Q19:06Nico Collins 75 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–3
- Q19:15Matt Gay 38 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:06Nico Collins 75 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 7 – 3 IND · HOU 41% → 59% +18HOU 41% → 59%+18 pts
- Q21:57Andrew Beck 1 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 14 – 3 IND · HOU 63% → 82% +20HOU 63% → 82%+20 pts
- Q39:56Jonathan Taylor 49 Yd Run (Gardner Minshew Pass to Mo Alie-Cox for Two-Point Conversion)HOU 14 – 14 IND · IND 22% → 51% +28IND 22% → 51%+28 pts
- Q413:33Matt Gay 35 Yd Field GoalHOU 17 – 17 IND · IND 35% → 51% +15IND 35% → 51%+15 pts
- Q46:20Devin Singletary 3 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn PAT failed)HOU 23 – 17 IND · HOU 50% → 88% +38HOU 50% → 88%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Colts 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- IND 50%
- Fair odds
- IND -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 22.7 – 23.0 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +13 | +24 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · IND: Gardner Minshew II, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +3 Elo | HOU 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 51.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3222.1 | Points scored | 23.610th of 32 |
| 13th of 3220.9 | Points allowed | 24.527th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.3 | Margin | −0.919th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.37 | Yards per play | 5.2015th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.17 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2218th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 15th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 4–421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–1 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.