Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Aidan O'ConnellPassing30/47, 299 YDS, 2 TD
- Zamir WhiteRushing20 CAR, 71 YDS
- Davante AdamsReceiving13 REC, 126 YDS, 2 TD
Colts- Gardner Minshew IIPassing15/23, 224 YDS, 1 TD
- Jonathan TaylorRushing21 CAR, 96 YDS, 1 TD
- Alec PierceReceiving1 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:43Davante Adams 1 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)20–23
- Q43:11Matt Gay 45 Yd Field Goal13–23
- Q44:35Daniel Carlson 33 Yd Field Goal13–20
- Q47:34Matt Gay 33 Yd Field Goal10–20
- Q31:17Matt Gay 38 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q36:31Davante Adams 4 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)10–14
- Q23:53Alec Pierce 58 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)3–14
- Q15:57Daniel Carlson 40 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q112:11Jonathan Taylor 5 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:11Jonathan Taylor 5 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)LV 0 – 7 IND · IND 54% → 71% +17IND 54% → 71%+17 pts
- Q15:57Daniel Carlson 40 Yd Field GoalLV 3 – 7 IND · LV 28% → 36% +7LV 28% → 36%+7 pts
- Q23:53Alec Pierce 58 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)LV 3 – 14 IND · IND 66% → 84% +18IND 66% → 84%+18 pts
- Q36:31Davante Adams 4 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 10 – 14 IND · LV 11% → 32% +20LV 11% → 32%+20 pts
- Q31:17Matt Gay 38 Yd Field GoalLV 10 – 17 IND · IND 70% → 82% +11IND 70% → 82%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Colts 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1
- IND 53%
- Fair odds
- IND -118
- LV +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 21.5 – 22.6 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +11 | +21 | LV: Aidan O'Connell, usually Jimmy Garoppolo · IND: Gardner Minshew II, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +19 Elo | IND 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 54.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3219.0 | Points scored | 23.610th of 32 |
| 8th of 3219.6 | Points allowed | 24.828th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −1.219th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.82 | Yards per play | 5.1218th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.11 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2317th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 3–424th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.