Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing13/30, 161 YDS, 2 INT
- Miles SandersRushing5 CAR, 22 YDS
- Adam ThielenReceiving3 REC, 49 YDS
Saints- Derek CarrPassing19/23, 200 YDS, 3 TD
- Alvin KamaraRushing15 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- Rashid ShaheedReceiving3 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q410:38Jamaal Williams 14 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)10–47
- Q413:08Blake Grupe 39 Yd Field Goal10–40
- Q34:55Bryce Young 3 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)10–37
- Q38:27Alvin Kamara 1 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)3–37
- Q20:00Eddy Pineiro 43 Yd Field Goal3–30
- Q21:18Juwan Johnson 16 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)0–30
- Q22:08Blake Grupe 52 Yd Field Goal0–23
- Q27:03Blake Grupe 44 Yd Field Goal0–20
- Q11:23Foster Moreau 3 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)0–17
- Q110:04Blake Grupe 57 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q112:08Rashid Shaheed 59 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:08Rashid Shaheed 59 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)CAR 0 – 7 NO · NO 75% → 87% +12NO 75% → 87%+12 pts
- Q110:04Blake Grupe 57 Yd Field GoalCAR 0 – 10 NO · NO 87% → 91% +4NO 87% → 91%+4 pts
- Q11:23Foster Moreau 3 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)CAR 0 – 17 NO · NO 91% → 97% +6NO 91% → 97%+6 pts
- Q27:03Blake Grupe 44 Yd Field GoalCAR 0 – 20 NO · NO 97% → 98% +1NO 97% → 98%+1 pts
- Q22:08Blake Grupe 52 Yd Field GoalCAR 0 – 23 NO · NO 99% → >99% +1NO 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Saints 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -9
- NO 79%
- Fair odds
- NO -308
- CAR +308 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 16.9 – 24.9 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1337 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | 0 | — | CAR: Bryce Young · NO: Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +229 Elo | NO 78.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 75.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3213.9 | Points scored | 23.69th of 32 |
| 29th of 3224.5 | Points allowed | 19.28th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−10.6 | Margin | +4.47th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.11 | Yards per play | 5.1119th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.92 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2817th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–9 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 0–2 NO in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.