Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing20/32, 137 YDS
- Rachaad WhiteRushing19 CAR, 75 YDS
- Chris Godwin Jr.Receiving6 REC, 51 YDS
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing11/18, 94 YDS
- Chuba HubbardRushing23 CAR, 83 YDS
- DJ CharkReceiving2 REC, 46 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q410:18Chase McLaughlin 39 Yd Field Goal9–0
- Q20:00Chase McLaughlin 57 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q24:13Chase McLaughlin 36 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:13Chase McLaughlin 36 Yd Field GoalTB 3 – 0 CAR · TB 67% → 76% +8TB 67% → 76%+8 pts
- Q20:00Chase McLaughlin 57 Yd Field GoalTB 6 – 0 CAR · TB 75% → 83% +8TB 75% → 83%+8 pts
- Q410:18Chase McLaughlin 39 Yd Field GoalTB 9 – 0 CAR · TB 88% → 95% +7TB 88% → 95%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Buccaneers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -8.5
- TB 77%
- Fair odds
- TB -259
- CAR +259 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 24.2 – 17.4 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1268 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | 0 | TB: Baker Mayfield · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +210 Elo | TB 77.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 72.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3221.2 | Points scored | 14.831st of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.3 | Points allowed | 25.430th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.9 | Margin | −10.732nd of 32 |
| 15th of 325.21 | Yards per play | 4.1232nd of 32 |
| 26th of 325.54 | Yards allowed per play | 5.017th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 11th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 2–527th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–0 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.