Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing19/32, 112 YDS, 1 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing11 CAR, 45 YDS
- Adam ThielenReceiving6 REC, 38 YDS
Jaguars- C.J. BeathardPassing17/24, 178 YDS
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing16 CAR, 102 YDS, 2 TD
- Evan EngramReceiving6 REC, 60 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:16Travis Etienne Jr. 1 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)0–26
- Q33:00Brandon McManus 34 Yd Field Goal0–19
- Q311:56Travis Etienne Jr. 62 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)0–16
- Q22:45Brandon McManus 24 Yd Field Goal0–9
- Q27:18Brandon McManus 26 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q18:36Brandon McManus 35 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:36Brandon McManus 35 Yd Field GoalCAR 0 – 3 JAX · JAX 64% → 71% +7JAX 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q27:18Brandon McManus 26 Yd Field GoalCAR 0 – 6 JAX · JAX 70% → 78% +8JAX 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q22:45Brandon McManus 24 Yd Field GoalCAR 0 – 9 JAX · JAX 78% → 85% +7JAX 78% → 85%+7 pts
- Q311:56Travis Etienne Jr. 62 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)CAR 0 – 16 JAX · JAX 86% → 96% +10JAX 86% → 96%+10 pts
- Q33:00Brandon McManus 34 Yd Field GoalCAR 0 – 19 JAX · JAX 98% → >99% +1JAX 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jaguars 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -5.5
- JAX 68%
- Fair odds
- JAX -180
- CAR +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 19.6 – 23.8 JAX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1292 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | 0 | −92 | CAR: Bryce Young · JAX: C.J. Beathard, usually Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +134 Elo | JAX 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 64.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3215.7 | Points scored | 22.113th of 32 |
| 30th of 3225.4 | Points allowed | 22.920th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−9.7 | Margin | −0.818th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.22 | Yards per play | 5.1716th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.00 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5425th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–8 | Road vs home | 2–526th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.