Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing26/39, 217 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Carson SteeleRushing17 CAR, 72 YDS
- Rashee RiceReceiving12 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing20/29, 230 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tyler AllgeierRushing7 CAR, 32 YDS
- Drake LondonReceiving6 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q412:52Younghoe Koo 54 Yd Field Goal22–17
- Q31:16JuJu Smith-Schuster 13 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker PAT failed)22–14
- Q39:40Harrison Butker 21 Yd Field Goal16–14
- Q20:06Harrison Butker 44 Yd Field Goal13–14
- Q22:43Harrison Butker 53 Yd Field Goal10–14
- Q26:37Bijan Robinson 1 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–14
- Q28:45Rashee Rice 13 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–7
- Q111:07Drake London 14 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:07Drake London 14 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)KC 0 – 7 ATL · ATL 39% → 57% +18ATL 39% → 57%+18 pts
- Q28:45Rashee Rice 13 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 7 – 7 ATL · KC 38% → 59% +22KC 38% → 59%+22 pts
- Q26:37Bijan Robinson 1 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)KC 7 – 14 ATL · ATL 41% → 63% +22ATL 41% → 63%+22 pts
- Q39:40Harrison Butker 21 Yd Field GoalKC 16 – 14 ATL · KC 54% → 65% +11KC 54% → 65%+11 pts
- Q31:16JuJu Smith-Schuster 13 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker PAT failed)KC 22 – 14 ATL · KC 65% → 87% +22KC 65% → 87%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- KC -3.5
- ML KC -170 / ATL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -6
- KC 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.4 pts
- KC: Elo 71.1%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- KC -160
- ATL +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 25.0 – 21.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1646 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +27 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · ATL: Kirk Cousins, usually Desmond Ridder (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +156 Elo | KC 71.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 66.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 61.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3221.8 | Points scored | 18.926th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3217.3 | Points allowed | 21.918th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+4.5 | Margin | −3.123rd of 32 |
| 9th of 325.53 | Yards per play | 5.2414th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.71 | Yards allowed per play | 5.039th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326–2 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.