Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing17/23, 215 YDS, 2 TD
- Isiah PachecoRushing15 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis KelceReceiving5 REC, 75 YDS, 2 TD
Bills- Josh AllenPassing26/39, 186 YDS, 1 TD
- Josh AllenRushing12 CAR, 72 YDS, 2 TD
- Dalton KincaidReceiving5 REC, 45 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q414:20Isiah Pacheco 4 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)27–24
- Q33:23Khalil Shakir 13 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)20–24
- Q311:48Travis Kelce 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)20–17
- Q20:26Josh Allen 2 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)13–17
- Q23:33Travis Kelce 22 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)13–10
- Q29:12Harrison Butker 29 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q213:32Josh Allen 5 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)3–10
- Q14:35Harrison Butker 47 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q18:08Tyler Bass 27 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:33Travis Kelce 22 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 13 – 10 BUF · KC 28% → 50% +22KC 28% → 50%+22 pts
- Q20:26Josh Allen 2 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)KC 13 – 17 BUF · BUF 49% → 72% +23BUF 49% → 72%+23 pts
- Q311:48Travis Kelce 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 20 – 17 BUF · KC 27% → 52% +25KC 27% → 52%+25 pts
- Q33:23Khalil Shakir 13 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)KC 20 – 24 BUF · BUF 44% → 74% +30BUF 44% → 74%+30 pts
- Q414:20Isiah Pacheco 4 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 27 – 24 BUF · KC 25% → 59% +34KC 25% → 59%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bills 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -4.5
- BUF 66%
- Fair odds
- BUF -173
- KC +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 19.1 – 22.9 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1590 | 1675 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | — | KC: Patrick Mahomes · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +116 Elo | BUF 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 63.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3221.8 | Points scored | 26.56th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3217.3 | Points allowed | 18.34th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+4.5 | Margin | +8.24th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.53 | Yards per play | 5.715th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.71 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1411th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 326–2 | Road vs home | 7–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 0–1 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.