Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Blaine GabbertPassing15/30, 154 YDS, 1 INT
- La'Mical PerineRushing21 CAR, 76 YDS
- Mecole Hardman Jr.Receiving6 REC, 77 YDS
Chargers- Easton StickPassing28/47, 258 YDS
- Easton StickRushing13 CAR, 77 YDS
- Donald Parham Jr.Receiving5 REC, 83 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:49Harrison Butker 41 Yd Field Goal13–12
- Q44:06Cameron Dicker 20 Yd Field Goal10–12
- Q34:11Cameron Dicker 43 Yd Field Goal10–9
- Q20:00Cameron Dicker 40 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q22:43Cameron Dicker 49 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q24:03Harrison Butker 22 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q14:56Mike Edwards 97 Yd Fumble Return (Harrison Butker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:56Mike Edwards 97 Yd Fumble Return (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 7 – 0 LAC · KC 53% → 71% +18KC 53% → 71%+18 pts
- Q20:00Cameron Dicker 40 Yd Field GoalKC 10 – 6 LAC · LAC 25% → 34% +9LAC 25% → 34%+9 pts
- Q34:11Cameron Dicker 43 Yd Field GoalKC 10 – 9 LAC · LAC 31% → 44% +13LAC 31% → 44%+13 pts
- Q44:06Cameron Dicker 20 Yd Field GoalKC 10 – 12 LAC · LAC 40% → 68% +28LAC 40% → 68%+28 pts
- Q40:49Harrison Butker 41 Yd Field GoalKC 13 – 12 LAC · KC 14% → 71% +57KC 14% → 71%+57 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -1.5
- KC 56%
- Fair odds
- KC -112
- LAC +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 21.7 – 20.9 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −115 | −50 | KC: Blaine Gabbert, usually Patrick Mahomes · LAC: Easton Stick, usually Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +43 Elo | KC 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.4 | Points scored | 20.920th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3217.6 | Points allowed | 24.125th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+4.8 | Margin | −3.225th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.59 | Yards per play | 5.1119th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.74 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6027th of 32 |
| 18th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325–2 | Road vs home | 2–628th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–0 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.