Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Easton StickPassing24/38, 220 YDS
- Austin EkelerRushing13 CAR, 46 YDS
- Alex EricksonReceiving7 REC, 98 YDS
Broncos- Jarrett StidhamPassing20/32, 224 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaleel McLaughlinRushing8 CAR, 44 YDS
- Lil'Jordan HumphreyReceiving2 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:17Cameron Dicker 52 Yd Field Goal9–16
- Q411:19Wil Lutz 20 Yd Field Goal6–16
- Q36:20Cameron Dicker 50 Yd Field Goal6–13
- Q21:53Wil Lutz 43 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q26:37Lil'Jordan Humphrey 54 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Wil Lutz Kick)3–10
- Q29:43Cameron Dicker 36 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q13:55Wil Lutz 32 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:55Wil Lutz 32 Yd Field GoalLAC 0 – 3 DEN · DEN 58% → 66% +8DEN 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q29:43Cameron Dicker 36 Yd Field GoalLAC 3 – 3 DEN · LAC 34% → 43% +9LAC 34% → 43%+9 pts
- Q26:37Lil'Jordan Humphrey 54 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Wil Lutz Kick)LAC 3 – 10 DEN · DEN 57% → 77% +20DEN 57% → 77%+20 pts
- Q36:20Cameron Dicker 50 Yd Field GoalLAC 6 – 13 DEN · LAC 12% → 19% +7LAC 12% → 19%+7 pts
- Q411:19Wil Lutz 20 Yd Field GoalLAC 6 – 16 DEN · DEN 87% → 94% +7DEN 87% → 94%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Broncos 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3
- DEN 60%
- Fair odds
- DEN -144
- LAC +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 21.7 – 24.3 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −60 | −88 | LAC: Easton Stick, usually Justin Herbert · DEN: Jarrett Stidham, usually Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +74 Elo | DEN 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 59.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3221.7 | Points scored | 21.817th of 32 |
| 26th of 3224.6 | Points allowed | 25.129th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−2.9 | Margin | −3.325th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.13 | Yards per play | 5.0325th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.66 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9231st of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 14th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 4–420th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 0–1 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.