New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Bailey ZappePassing25/33, 256 YDS, 2 TD
- Ezekiel ElliottRushing12 CAR, 27 YDS
- DeMario DouglasReceiving5 REC, 74 YDS
Broncos- Russell WilsonPassing25/37, 238 YDS, 2 TD
- Jaleel McLaughlinRushing6 CAR, 37 YDS
- Marvin Mims Jr.Receiving3 REC, 63 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:02Chad Ryland 56 Yd Field Goal26–23
- Q42:53Brandon Johnson 21 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Russell Wilson Pass to Javonte Williams for Two-Point Conversion)23–23
- Q48:33Lucas Krull 3 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Russell Wilson Pass to Brandon Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)23–15
- Q31:28Cody Davis 1 Yd Fumble Return (Chad Ryland Kick)23–7
- Q31:34Mike Gesicki 11 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Chad Ryland Kick)16–7
- Q39:48Ezekiel Elliott 15 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Chad Ryland PAT failed)9–7
- Q213:30Chad Ryland 33 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q15:15Javonte Williams 3 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:48Ezekiel Elliott 15 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Chad Ryland PAT failed)NE 9 – 7 DEN · NE 20% → 40% +20NE 20% → 40%+20 pts
- Q31:34Mike Gesicki 11 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Chad Ryland Kick)NE 16 – 7 DEN · NE 45% → 76% +31NE 45% → 76%+31 pts
- Q31:28Cody Davis 1 Yd Fumble Return (Chad Ryland Kick)NE 23 – 7 DEN · NE 76% → 94% +18NE 76% → 94%+18 pts
- Q42:53Brandon Johnson 21 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Russell Wilson Pass to Javonte Williams for Two-Point Conversion)NE 23 – 23 DEN · DEN 2% → 56% +54DEN 2% → 56%+54 pts
- Q40:02Chad Ryland 56 Yd Field GoalNE 26 – 23 DEN · NE 49% → >99% +51NE 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Broncos 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -9
- DEN 79%
- Fair odds
- DEN -307
- NE +307 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 16.7 – 24.6 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1351 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −20 | — | NE: Bailey Zappe, usually Mac Jones · DEN: Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +226 Elo | DEN 78.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 75.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3213.3 | Points scored | 21.717th of 32 |
| 15th of 3221.4 | Points allowed | 25.129th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−8.1 | Margin | −3.426th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.68 | Yards per play | 5.0921st of 32 |
| 5th of 324.82 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9631st of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 23rd of 322–4 | Road vs home | 4–315th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.