Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing15/21, 237 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing20 CAR, 70 YDS
- Gabe DavisReceiving4 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD
Chargers- Easton StickPassing23/33, 215 YDS
- Austin EkelerRushing15 CAR, 65 YDS
- Joshua PalmerReceiving5 REC, 47 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:28Tyler Bass 29 Yd Field Goal24–22
- Q45:26Cameron Dicker 53 Yd Field Goal21–22
- Q47:19Cameron Dicker 45 Yd Field Goal21–19
- Q412:36Cameron Dicker 47 Yd Field Goal21–16
- Q31:28Josh Allen 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)21–13
- Q37:22Cameron Dicker 40 Yd Field Goal14–13
- Q20:38Josh Allen 2 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)14–10
- Q29:02Gabe Davis 57 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)7–10
- Q213:49Easton Stick 1 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)0–10
- Q16:32Cameron Dicker 20 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:02Gabe Davis 57 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 7 – 10 LAC · BUF 40% → 61% +22BUF 40% → 61%+22 pts
- Q20:38Josh Allen 2 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 14 – 10 LAC · BUF 58% → 79% +21BUF 58% → 79%+21 pts
- Q31:28Josh Allen 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 21 – 13 LAC · BUF 68% → 90% +23BUF 68% → 90%+23 pts
- Q45:26Cameron Dicker 53 Yd Field GoalBUF 21 – 22 LAC · LAC 27% → 51% +24LAC 27% → 51%+24 pts
- Q40:28Tyler Bass 29 Yd Field GoalBUF 24 – 22 LAC · BUF 26% → 93% +68BUF 26% → 93%+68 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bills 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -9
- BUF 78%
- Fair odds
- BUF -284
- LAC +284 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 26.3 – 18.9 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1616 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −69 | BUF: Josh Allen · LAC: Easton Stick, usually Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +219 Elo | BUF 77.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 74.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3227.1 | Points scored | 21.616th of 32 |
| 4th of 3218.1 | Points allowed | 24.628th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+8.9 | Margin | −3.023rd of 32 |
| 5th of 325.75 | Yards per play | 5.2016th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.16 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6226th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 20th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 2–528th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.