Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing20/39, 199 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Raheem MostertRushing8 CAR, 33 YDS
- Tyreek HillReceiving5 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing23/41, 262 YDS, 1 TD
- Isiah PachecoRushing24 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- Rashee RiceReceiving8 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q411:06Isiah Pacheco 3 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)7–26
- Q37:49Harrison Butker 21 Yd Field Goal7–19
- Q20:18Harrison Butker 32 Yd Field Goal7–16
- Q27:36Harrison Butker 26 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q214:01Tyreek Hill 53 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)7–10
- Q214:51Harrison Butker 28 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q111:05Rashee Rice 11 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:05Rashee Rice 11 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)MIA 0 – 7 KC · KC 54% → 71% +17KC 54% → 71%+17 pts
- Q214:51Harrison Butker 28 Yd Field GoalMIA 0 – 10 KC · KC 73% → 80% +7KC 73% → 80%+7 pts
- Q214:01Tyreek Hill 53 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 7 – 10 KC · MIA 20% → 38% +17MIA 20% → 38%+17 pts
- Q27:36Harrison Butker 26 Yd Field GoalMIA 7 – 13 KC · KC 63% → 71% +9KC 63% → 71%+9 pts
- Q20:18Harrison Butker 32 Yd Field GoalMIA 7 – 16 KC · KC 73% → 81% +8KC 73% → 81%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -1
- KC 54%
- Fair odds
- KC -120
- MIA +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 21.8 – 23.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +6 | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +28 Elo | KC 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 54.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3229.2 | Points scored | 21.815th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3223.0 | Points allowed | 17.32nd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+6.2 | Margin | +4.56th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.48 | Yards per play | 5.539th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.12 | Yards allowed per play | 4.715th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 6th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 4–421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–1 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.