Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing22/38, 237 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- De'Von AchaneRushing14 CAR, 107 YDS
- Tyreek HillReceiving6 REC, 76 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing18/21, 321 YDS, 5 TD
- Gus EdwardsRushing16 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- Zay FlowersReceiving3 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:28Charlie Kolar 19 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Justin Tucker Kick)19–56
- Q44:11Melvin Gordon III 7 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)19–49
- Q49:38Patrick Ricard 4 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)19–42
- Q413:57De'Von Achane 1 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–35
- Q313:29Isaiah Likely 7 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)13–35
- Q21:24Isaiah Likely 35 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)13–28
- Q22:58Zay Flowers 75 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)13–21
- Q23:10Jason Sanders 38 Yd Field Goal13–14
- Q26:56Gus Edwards 1 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)10–14
- Q13:39Jason Sanders 27 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q16:39Justice Hill 20 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)7–7
- Q111:00Cedrick Wilson Jr. 8 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:00Cedrick Wilson Jr. 8 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 7 – 0 BAL · MIA 32% → 50% +18MIA 32% → 50%+18 pts
- Q16:39Justice Hill 20 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)MIA 7 – 7 BAL · BAL 49% → 67% +18BAL 49% → 67%+18 pts
- Q26:56Gus Edwards 1 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)MIA 10 – 14 BAL · BAL 55% → 76% +20BAL 55% → 76%+20 pts
- Q22:58Zay Flowers 75 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)MIA 13 – 21 BAL · BAL 67% → 85% +18BAL 67% → 85%+18 pts
- Q21:24Isaiah Likely 35 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)MIA 13 – 28 BAL · BAL 85% → 95% +10BAL 85% → 95%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ravens 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -6.5
- BAL 72%
- Fair odds
- BAL -216
- MIA +216 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 20.7 – 26.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1620 | 1745 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +161 Elo | BAL 71.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 68.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3230.9 | Points scored | 27.84th of 32 |
| 13th of 3220.9 | Points allowed | 16.31st of 32 |
| 4th of 32+9.9 | Margin | +11.52nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.57 | Yards per play | 5.794th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.81 | Yards allowed per play | 4.552nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 4th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 5–26th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.