New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Bailey ZappePassing16/26, 209 YDS, 3 INT
- Ezekiel ElliottRushing14 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD
- Kevin HarrisReceiving2 REC, 54 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing15/30, 169 YDS, 1 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing16 CAR, 48 YDS
- Dalton KincaidReceiving4 REC, 87 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q411:01Ezekiel Elliott 6 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)21–27
- Q310:42Josh Allen 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)14–27
- Q29:44Bailey Zappe 17 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)14–20
- Q212:36Rasul Douglas 40 Yd Interception Return (Tyler Bass Kick)7–20
- Q12:16Tyler Bass 24 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q16:37Josh Allen 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)7–10
- Q112:07Tyler Bass 35 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q114:48Jalen Reagor 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Chad Ryland Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q114:48Jalen Reagor 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Chad Ryland Kick)NE 7 – 0 BUF · NE 20% → 35% +15NE 20% → 35%+15 pts
- Q16:37Josh Allen 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)NE 7 – 10 BUF · BUF 69% → 83% +14BUF 69% → 83%+14 pts
- Q29:44Bailey Zappe 17 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)NE 14 – 20 BUF · NE 5% → 13% +8NE 5% → 13%+8 pts
- Q310:42Josh Allen 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)NE 14 – 27 BUF · BUF 87% → 96% +9BUF 87% → 96%+9 pts
- Q411:01Ezekiel Elliott 6 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)NE 21 – 27 BUF · NE 1% → 11% +10NE 1% → 11%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bills 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -11.5
- BUF 84%
- Fair odds
- BUF -393
- NE +393 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 15.8 – 25.5 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1381 | 1622 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −8 | — | NE: Bailey Zappe, usually Mac Jones · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +284 Elo | BUF 83.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 79.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3214.1 | Points scored | 26.96th of 32 |
| 15th of 3221.5 | Points allowed | 18.44th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−7.3 | Margin | +8.55th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.71 | Yards per play | 5.795th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.78 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0911th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 12th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 6–14th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NE 1–0 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.