Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Mason RudolphPassing22/39, 229 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Jaylen WarrenRushing8 CAR, 38 YDS
- Pat FreiermuthReceiving5 REC, 76 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing21/30, 203 YDS, 3 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing18 CAR, 79 YDS
- Dalton KincaidReceiving3 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q46:27Khalil Shakir 17 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)17–31
- Q410:32Calvin Austin III 7 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Chris Boswell Kick)17–24
- Q31:32Tyler Bass 45 Yd Field Goal10–24
- Q38:50Chris Boswell 40 Yd Field Goal10–21
- Q21:39Diontae Johnson 10 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Chris Boswell Kick)7–21
- Q27:01Josh Allen 52 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)0–21
- Q14:10Dalton Kincaid 29 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)0–14
- Q17:02Dawson Knox 9 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:02Dawson Knox 9 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)PIT 0 – 7 BUF · BUF 64% → 80% +16BUF 64% → 80%+16 pts
- Q14:10Dalton Kincaid 29 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)PIT 0 – 14 BUF · BUF 80% → 91% +11BUF 80% → 91%+11 pts
- Q27:01Josh Allen 52 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)PIT 0 – 21 BUF · BUF 92% → 98% +5BUF 92% → 98%+5 pts
- Q410:32Calvin Austin III 7 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 17 – 24 BUF · PIT 1% → 11% +10PIT 1% → 11%+10 pts
- Q46:27Khalil Shakir 17 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)PIT 17 – 31 BUF · BUF 93% → >99% +7BUF 93% → >99%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bills 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -5
- BUF 68%
- Fair odds
- BUF -189
- PIT +189 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 18.5 – 23.0 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1655 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | 0 | — | PIT: Mason Rudolph, usually Kenny Pickett · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +130 Elo | BUF 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 65.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3217.9 | Points scored | 26.56th of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.1 | Points allowed | 18.34th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−1.2 | Margin | +8.24th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.03 | Yards per play | 5.715th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.42 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1411th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 5th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 7–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.