Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Mason RudolphPassing18/24, 274 YDS
- Najee HarrisRushing27 CAR, 122 YDS, 2 TD
- George PickensReceiving7 REC, 131 YDS
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing23/33, 290 YDS, 1 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing10 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- DK MetcalfReceiving5 REC, 106 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:01Jason Myers 24 Yd Field Goal30–23
- Q44:31Chris Boswell 21 Yd Field Goal30–20
- Q47:07Chris Boswell 26 Yd Field Goal27–20
- Q413:30Jason Myers 42 Yd Field Goal24–20
- Q36:57Najee Harris 4 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)24–17
- Q310:47Jason Myers 43 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q21:36Najee Harris 9 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)17–14
- Q25:30Jaxon Smith-Njigba 12 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)10–14
- Q210:27Chris Boswell 39 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q213:50Kenneth Walker III 13 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)7–7
- Q11:47Jaylen Warren 18 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:47Jaylen Warren 18 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 7 – 0 SEA · PIT 39% → 59% +20PIT 39% → 59%+20 pts
- Q213:50Kenneth Walker III 13 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)PIT 7 – 7 SEA · SEA 40% → 60% +20SEA 40% → 60%+20 pts
- Q25:30Jaxon Smith-Njigba 12 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)PIT 10 – 14 SEA · SEA 50% → 71% +22SEA 50% → 71%+22 pts
- Q21:36Najee Harris 9 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 17 – 14 SEA · PIT 28% → 51% +23PIT 28% → 51%+23 pts
- Q36:57Najee Harris 4 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 24 – 17 SEA · PIT 43% → 71% +28PIT 43% → 71%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Seahawks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -3.5
- SEA 63%
- Fair odds
- SEA -164
- PIT +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 19.1 – 22.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −20 | +7 | PIT: Mason Rudolph, usually Kenny Pickett · SEA: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +92 Elo | SEA 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 62.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3217.1 | Points scored | 21.319th of 32 |
| 7th of 3219.4 | Points allowed | 23.524th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−2.3 | Margin | −2.122nd of 32 |
| 25th of 324.93 | Yards per play | 5.3713th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.40 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3420th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.