Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Mason RudolphPassing18/20, 152 YDS, 1 TD
- Najee HarrisRushing26 CAR, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- Diontae JohnsonReceiving4 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
Ravens- Tyler HuntleyPassing15/28, 146 YDS, 1 TD
- Gus EdwardsRushing10 CAR, 48 YDS
- Nelson AgholorReceiving5 REC, 39 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:16Justin Tucker 36 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q43:13Chris Boswell 25 Yd Field Goal17–7
- Q414:49Diontae Johnson 71 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Chris Boswell Kick)14–7
- Q22:19Isaiah Likely 27 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Justin Tucker Kick)7–7
- Q12:36Najee Harris 6 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:36Najee Harris 6 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 7 – 0 BAL · PIT 37% → 57% +19PIT 37% → 57%+19 pts
- Q22:19Isaiah Likely 27 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Justin Tucker Kick)PIT 7 – 7 BAL · BAL 37% → 61% +24BAL 37% → 61%+24 pts
- Q414:49Diontae Johnson 71 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 14 – 7 BAL · PIT 43% → 76% +33PIT 43% → 76%+33 pts
- Q43:13Chris Boswell 25 Yd Field GoalPIT 17 – 7 BAL · PIT 97% → >99% +3PIT 97% → >99%+3 pts
- Q40:16Justin Tucker 36 Yd Field GoalPIT 17 – 10 BAL · BAL 0% → <1% +0BAL 0% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ravens 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -6
- BAL 71%
- Fair odds
- BAL -180
- PIT +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 19.3 – 23.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1769 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −5 | −137 | PIT: Mason Rudolph, usually Kenny Pickett · BAL: Tyler Huntley, usually Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +152 Elo | BAL 70.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 64.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3217.9 | Points scored | 29.62nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3219.6 | Points allowed | 16.41st of 32 |
| 21st of 32−1.7 | Margin | +13.11st of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.05 | Yards per play | 5.963rd of 32 |
| 25th of 325.50 | Yards allowed per play | 4.622nd of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 8th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 6–25th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.