Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing26/41, 273 YDS, 1 TD
- Lamar JacksonRushing16 CAR, 122 YDS
- Isaiah LikelyReceiving9 REC, 111 YDS, 1 TD
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing20/28, 291 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Isiah PachecoRushing15 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- Rashee RiceReceiving7 REC, 103 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:54Justin Tucker 32 Yd Field Goal20–27
- Q410:25Xavier Worthy 35 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)17–27
- Q414:47Isaiah Likely 49 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)17–20
- Q311:28Isiah Pacheco 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)10–20
- Q20:03Justin Tucker 25 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q25:44Harrison Butker 31 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q213:37Harrison Butker 32 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q15:55Xavier Worthy 21 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)7–7
- Q18:14Derrick Henry 5 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:14Derrick Henry 5 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 7 – 0 KC · BAL 47% → 66% +18BAL 47% → 66%+18 pts
- Q15:55Xavier Worthy 21 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)BAL 7 – 7 KC · KC 34% → 53% +19KC 34% → 53%+19 pts
- Q311:28Isiah Pacheco 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)BAL 10 – 20 KC · KC 63% → 84% +21KC 63% → 84%+21 pts
- Q414:47Isaiah Likely 49 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 17 – 20 KC · BAL 10% → 34% +24BAL 10% → 34%+24 pts
- Q410:25Xavier Worthy 35 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)BAL 17 – 27 KC · KC 68% → 94% +25KC 68% → 94%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -0.5
- KC 52%
- Fair odds
- KC -111
- BAL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 20.7 – 21.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1639 | 1617 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +5 | BAL: Lamar Jackson · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +13 Elo | KC 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3228.4 | Points scored | 21.815th of 32 |
| 1st of 3216.5 | Points allowed | 17.32nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+11.9 | Margin | +4.56th of 32 |
| 4th of 325.85 | Yards per play | 5.539th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.62 | Yards allowed per play | 4.715th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 1st of 326–1 | Road vs home | 4–421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 0–1 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.