Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing19/33, 175 YDS
- Devin SingletaryRushing9 CAR, 22 YDS
- Nico CollinsReceiving5 REC, 68 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing16/22, 152 YDS, 2 TD
- Lamar JacksonRushing11 CAR, 100 YDS, 2 TD
- Zay FlowersReceiving4 REC, 41 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:56Justin Tucker 43 Yd Field Goal10–34
- Q46:20Lamar Jackson 8 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)10–31
- Q414:23Isaiah Likely 15 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)10–24
- Q312:04Lamar Jackson 15 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)10–17
- Q24:17Steven Sims 67 Yd Punt Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)10–10
- Q29:14Nelson Agholor 3 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)3–10
- Q10:28Ka'imi Fairbairn 50 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q18:36Justin Tucker 53 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:28Ka'imi Fairbairn 50 Yd Field GoalHOU 3 – 3 BAL · HOU 25% → 33% +7HOU 25% → 33%+7 pts
- Q29:14Nelson Agholor 3 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)HOU 3 – 10 BAL · BAL 66% → 83% +17BAL 66% → 83%+17 pts
- Q24:17Steven Sims 67 Yd Punt Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 10 – 10 BAL · HOU 16% → 35% +18HOU 16% → 35%+18 pts
- Q312:04Lamar Jackson 15 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)HOU 10 – 17 BAL · BAL 64% → 84% +21BAL 64% → 84%+21 pts
- Q414:23Isaiah Likely 15 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)HOU 10 – 24 BAL · BAL 88% → 98% +10BAL 88% → 98%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ravens 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -7
- BAL 73%
- Fair odds
- BAL -232
- HOU +232 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 19.3 – 25.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1730 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +14 | +7 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +177 Elo | BAL 73.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 69.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.2 | Points scored | 28.44th of 32 |
| 11th of 3220.8 | Points allowed | 16.51st of 32 |
| 12th of 32+1.4 | Margin | +11.91st of 32 |
| 13th of 325.37 | Yards per play | 5.854th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.21 | Yards allowed per play | 4.623rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 13th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 6–37th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–1 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.