San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing23/38, 255 YDS, 1 TD
- Christian McCaffreyRushing22 CAR, 80 YDS
- Christian McCaffreyReceiving8 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing34/46, 333 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Patrick MahomesRushing9 CAR, 66 YDS
- Travis KelceReceiving9 REC, 93 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT0:03Mecole Hardman Jr. Pass From Patrick Mahomes for 3 Yds22–25
- OT7:22Jake Moody Made 27 Yd Field Goal22–19
- Q40:03Harrison Butker Made 29 Yd Field Goal19–19
- Q41:53Jake Moody Made 53 Yd Field Goal19–16
- Q45:46Harrison Butker Made 24 Yd Field Goal16–16
- Q411:22Jauan Jennings Pass From Brock Purdy for 10 Yds, J.Moody extra point is Blocked (L.Chenal), ATTEMPT FAILS.16–13
- Q32:28Marquez Valdes-Scantling Pass From Patrick Mahomes for 16 Yds Harrison Butker Made Ex. Pt10–13
- Q35:01Harrison Butker Made 57 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q20:20Harrison Butker Made 28 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q24:23Christian McCaffrey Pass From Jauan Jennings for 21 Yds Jake Moody Made Ex. Pt10–0
- Q214:48Jake Moody Made 55 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:28Marquez Valdes-Scantling Pass From Patrick Mahomes for 16 Yds Harrison Butker Made Ex. PtSF 10 – 13 KC · KC 30% → 61% +31KC 30% → 61%+31 pts
- Q411:22Jauan Jennings Pass From Brock Purdy for 10 Yds, J.Moody extra point is Blocked (L.Chenal), ATTEMPT FAILS.SF 16 – 13 KC · SF 35% → 69% +33SF 35% → 69%+33 pts
- Q41:53Jake Moody Made 53 Yd Field GoalSF 19 – 16 KC · SF 51% → 86% +35SF 51% → 86%+35 pts
- Q40:03Harrison Butker Made 29 Yd Field GoalSF 19 – 19 KC · KC <1% → 50% +50KC <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT0:03Mecole Hardman Jr. Pass From Patrick Mahomes for 3 YdsSF 22 – 25 KC · KC <1% → >99% +100KC <1% → >99%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
49ers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -2
- SF 56%
- Fair odds
- SF -122
- KC +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 22.1 – 20.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1698 | 1655 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | +8 | +5 | SF: Brock Purdy · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +45 Elo | SF 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 55.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3228.9 | Points scored | 21.815th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3217.5 | Points allowed | 17.32nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+11.4 | Margin | +4.56th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.61 | Yards per play | 5.539th of 32 |
| 7th of 324.98 | Yards allowed per play | 4.715th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.