Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing25/41, 273 YDS, 1 TD
- David MontgomeryRushing15 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- Sam LaPortaReceiving9 REC, 97 YDS
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing20/31, 267 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing20 CAR, 90 YDS, 2 TD
- Deebo Samuel Sr.Receiving8 REC, 89 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:56Jameson Williams 3 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley Kick)31–34
- Q43:02Elijah Mitchell 3 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)24–34
- Q49:52Jake Moody 33 Yd Field Goal24–27
- Q33:02Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)24–24
- Q35:17Brandon Aiyuk 6 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)24–17
- Q311:02Jake Moody 43 Yd Field Goal24–10
- Q20:07Michael Badgley 21 Yd Field Goal24–7
- Q25:54Jahmyr Gibbs 15 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)21–7
- Q213:49Christian McCaffrey 2 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)14–7
- Q12:34David Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)14–0
- Q113:18Jameson Williams 42 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q213:49Christian McCaffrey 2 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)DET 14 – 7 SF · SF 22% → 40% +18SF 22% → 40%+18 pts
- Q25:54Jahmyr Gibbs 15 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)DET 21 – 7 SF · DET 63% → 82% +19DET 63% → 82%+19 pts
- Q35:17Brandon Aiyuk 6 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)DET 24 – 17 SF · SF 9% → 28% +19SF 9% → 28%+19 pts
- Q33:02Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)DET 24 – 24 SF · SF 26% → 57% +30SF 26% → 57%+30 pts
- Q43:02Elijah Mitchell 3 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)DET 24 – 34 SF · SF 82% → >99% +18SF 82% → >99%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
49ers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -4
- SF 64%
- Fair odds
- SF -164
- DET +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 22.2 – 25.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1629 | 1686 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +8 | DET: Jared Goff · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +101 Elo | SF 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 62.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3227.1 | Points scored | 28.93rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3223.2 | Points allowed | 17.53rd of 32 |
| 8th of 32+3.9 | Margin | +11.43rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 325.90 | Yards per play | 6.611st of 32 |
| 26th of 325.51 | Yards allowed per play | 4.987th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 4th of 326–3 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.