Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing26/41, 349 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Rachaad WhiteRushing9 CAR, 55 YDS
- Mike EvansReceiving8 REC, 147 YDS, 1 TD
Lions- Jared GoffPassing30/43, 287 YDS, 2 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing9 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving8 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:37Mike Evans 16 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–31
- Q46:22Amon-Ra St. Brown 9 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley Kick)17–31
- Q413:13Jahmyr Gibbs 31 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)17–24
- Q30:10Rachaad White 12 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–17
- Q33:48Craig Reynolds 1 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)10–17
- Q20:15Cade Otton 2 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)10–10
- Q212:33Josh Reynolds 9 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley Kick)3–10
- Q14:19Chase McLaughlin 43 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q18:25Michael Badgley 23 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:33Josh Reynolds 9 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley Kick)TB 3 – 10 DET · DET 60% → 78% +18DET 60% → 78%+18 pts
- Q20:15Cade Otton 2 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 10 – 10 DET · TB 20% → 42% +21TB 20% → 42%+21 pts
- Q33:48Craig Reynolds 1 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)TB 10 – 17 DET · DET 57% → 83% +26DET 57% → 83%+26 pts
- Q30:10Rachaad White 12 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 17 – 17 DET · TB 15% → 44% +29TB 15% → 44%+29 pts
- Q413:13Jahmyr Gibbs 31 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)TB 17 – 24 DET · DET 56% → 86% +30DET 56% → 86%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lions 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3.5
- DET 62%
- Fair odds
- DET -161
- TB +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 20.7 – 24.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1609 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | TB: Baker Mayfield · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +88 Elo | DET 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 61.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3220.5 | Points scored | 27.15th of 32 |
| 7th of 3219.1 | Points allowed | 23.223rd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.4 | Margin | +3.98th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.11 | Yards per play | 5.903rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.46 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5126th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 9th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 6–25th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–1 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.