Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Nick MullensPassing30/44, 396 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Ty ChandlerRushing12 CAR, 69 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving12 REC, 192 YDS, 1 TD
Lions- Jared GoffPassing23/32, 320 YDS, 2 TD
- David MontgomeryRushing10 CAR, 40 YDS, 1 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving7 REC, 144 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q48:14Michael Badgley 39 Yd Field Goal20–30
- Q413:22Jordan Addison 42 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Greg Joseph Kick)20–27
- Q414:45Amon-Ra St. Brown 70 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley Kick)13–27
- Q30:20Justin Jefferson 38 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Greg Joseph Kick)13–20
- Q37:14David Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)6–20
- Q20:00Greg Joseph 43 Yd Field Goal6–13
- Q29:20Greg Joseph 39 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q12:12Jahmyr Gibbs 3 Yd Run0–13
- Q18:06Sam LaPorta 2 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:06Sam LaPorta 2 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley Kick)MIN 0 – 7 DET · DET 71% → 84% +14DET 71% → 84%+14 pts
- Q37:14David Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)MIN 6 – 20 DET · DET 86% → 96% +11DET 86% → 96%+11 pts
- Q30:20Justin Jefferson 38 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Greg Joseph Kick)MIN 13 – 20 DET · MIN 2% → 12% +10MIN 2% → 12%+10 pts
- Q414:45Amon-Ra St. Brown 70 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley Kick)MIN 13 – 27 DET · DET 88% → 98% +10DET 88% → 98%+10 pts
- Q413:22Jordan Addison 42 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Greg Joseph Kick)MIN 20 – 27 DET · MIN 2% → 11% +10MIN 2% → 11%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lions 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -7
- DET 74%
- Fair odds
- DET -255
- MIN +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 19.3 – 26.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1588 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −45 | — | MIN: Nick Mullens, usually Kirk Cousins · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +178 Elo | DET 73.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 71.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3220.3 | Points scored | 26.95th of 32 |
| 12th of 3220.8 | Points allowed | 23.423rd of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +3.57th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.46 | Yards per play | 5.863rd of 32 |
| 10th of 325.08 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4525th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 6th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 5–26th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–1 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.