Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing25/35, 250 YDS, 1 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing10 CAR, 34 YDS
- DeVonta SmithReceiving8 REC, 148 YDS
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing22/36, 337 YDS, 3 TD
- Rachaad WhiteRushing18 CAR, 72 YDS
- Cade OttonReceiving8 REC, 89 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:42Chris Godwin 23 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)9–32
- Q31:19Trey Palmer 56 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)9–25
- Q32:16Team Safety9–18
- Q23:06Dallas Goedert 5 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)9–16
- Q25:35Chase McLaughlin 48 Yd Field Goal3–16
- Q211:31Jake Elliott 47 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q214:03Chase McLaughlin 54 Yd Field Goal0–13
- Q15:47David Moore 44 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–10
- Q110:02Chase McLaughlin 28 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:02Chase McLaughlin 28 Yd Field GoalPHI 0 – 3 TB · TB 58% → 65% +8TB 58% → 65%+8 pts
- Q15:47David Moore 44 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)PHI 0 – 10 TB · TB 65% → 81% +16TB 65% → 81%+16 pts
- Q23:06Dallas Goedert 5 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)PHI 9 – 16 TB · PHI 11% → 23% +12PHI 11% → 23%+12 pts
- Q32:16Team SafetyPHI 9 – 18 TB · TB 82% → 88% +5TB 82% → 88%+5 pts
- Q31:19Trey Palmer 56 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)PHI 9 – 25 TB · TB 88% → 98% +10TB 88% → 98%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Buccaneers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -2.5
- TB 60%
- Fair odds
- TB -138
- PHI +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 21.4 – 23.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | PHI: Jalen Hurts · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +68 Elo | TB 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3225.5 | Points scored | 20.520th of 32 |
| 30th of 3225.2 | Points allowed | 19.17th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +1.413th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.42 | Yards per play | 5.1120th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.48 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4623rd of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 9th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 4–421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.