New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Tyrod TaylorPassing7/16, 133 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Saquon BarkleyRushing23 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- Darius SlaytonReceiving3 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing24/38, 301 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- D'Andre SwiftRushing20 CAR, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- A.J. BrownReceiving6 REC, 80 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:10Jake Elliott 43 Yd Field Goal25–33
- Q45:22Darius Slayton 69 Yd pass from Tyrod Taylor (Mason Crosby Kick)25–30
- Q46:04Jake Elliott 44 Yd Field Goal18–30
- Q411:07D'Andre Swift 5 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)18–27
- Q30:09Adoree' Jackson 76 Yd Interception Return (Saquon Barkley Run for Two-Point Conversion)18–20
- Q313:41Saquon Barkley 7 Yd Run (Mason Crosby Kick)10–20
- Q20:00Jake Elliott 21 Yd Field Goal3–20
- Q211:44DeVonta Smith 36 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)3–17
- Q214:53Jake Elliott 28 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q18:04Mason Crosby 52 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q112:27Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:27Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)NYG 0 – 7 PHI · PHI 71% → 84% +13PHI 71% → 84%+13 pts
- Q211:44DeVonta Smith 36 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)NYG 3 – 17 PHI · PHI 84% → 94% +9PHI 84% → 94%+9 pts
- Q30:09Adoree' Jackson 76 Yd Interception Return (Saquon Barkley Run for Two-Point Conversion)NYG 18 – 20 PHI · NYG 6% → 30% +23NYG 6% → 30%+23 pts
- Q411:07D'Andre Swift 5 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)NYG 18 – 27 PHI · PHI 70% → 94% +24PHI 70% → 94%+24 pts
- Q45:22Darius Slayton 69 Yd pass from Tyrod Taylor (Mason Crosby Kick)NYG 25 – 30 PHI · NYG <1% → 11% +11NYG <1% → 11%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Eagles 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -7.5
- PHI 75%
- Fair odds
- PHI -252
- NYG +252 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 18.6 – 25.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1394 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +18 | — | NYG: Tommy DeVito, usually Daniel Jones · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +190 Elo | PHI 75.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 71.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3213.5 | Points scored | 25.67th of 32 |
| 25th of 3224.1 | Points allowed | 24.426th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−10.6 | Margin | +1.312th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.24 | Yards per play | 5.3812th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.60 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3921st of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 28th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 5–15th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.