Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Marcus MariotaPassing13/20, 148 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Kenny GainwellRushing7 CAR, 62 YDS
- Quez WatkinsReceiving8 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
Giants- Tyrod TaylorPassing23/32, 297 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Saquon BarkleyRushing18 CAR, 46 YDS, 2 TD
- Wan'Dale RobinsonReceiving5 REC, 85 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:39Mason Crosby 21 Yd Field Goal10–27
- Q410:15Quez Watkins 16 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Jake Elliott Kick)10–24
- Q31:11Jake Elliott 36 Yd Field Goal3–24
- Q21:47Darius Slayton 19 Yd pass from Tyrod Taylor (Mason Crosby Kick)0–24
- Q25:08Saquon Barkley 3 Yd Run (Mason Crosby Kick)0–17
- Q29:38Saquon Barkley 2 Yd Run (Mason Crosby Kick)0–10
- Q16:54Mason Crosby 24 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:54Mason Crosby 24 Yd Field GoalPHI 0 – 3 NYG · NYG 40% → 48% +8NYG 40% → 48%+8 pts
- Q29:38Saquon Barkley 2 Yd Run (Mason Crosby Kick)PHI 0 – 10 NYG · NYG 50% → 71% +21NYG 50% → 71%+21 pts
- Q25:08Saquon Barkley 3 Yd Run (Mason Crosby Kick)PHI 0 – 17 NYG · NYG 73% → 88% +15NYG 73% → 88%+15 pts
- Q21:47Darius Slayton 19 Yd pass from Tyrod Taylor (Mason Crosby Kick)PHI 0 – 24 NYG · NYG 90% → 97% +7NYG 90% → 97%+7 pts
- Q410:15Quez Watkins 16 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 10 – 24 NYG · PHI <1% → 2% +2PHI <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Eagles 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -4
- PHI 65%
- Fair odds
- PHI -157
- NYG +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 24.2 – 21.0 NYG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1376 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +27 | PHI: Jalen Hurts · NYG: Tyrod Taylor, usually Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +104 Elo | PHI 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYG 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3226.4 | Points scored | 14.930th of 32 |
| 30th of 3225.1 | Points allowed | 24.829th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.4 | Margin | −9.930th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.47 | Yards per play | 4.3830th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.43 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7029th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 5th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 3–425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 NYG in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.