Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing25/31, 232 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- James ConnerRushing26 CAR, 128 YDS, 1 TD
- Greg DortchReceiving7 REC, 82 YDS
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing18/23, 167 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- D'Andre SwiftRushing13 CAR, 61 YDS
- A.J. BrownReceiving4 REC, 53 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:32James Conner 2 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)35–31
- Q42:33Jake Elliott 43 Yd Field Goal28–31
- Q45:26Michael Wilson 5 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)28–28
- Q49:55Dallas Goedert 9 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)21–28
- Q32:01James Conner 5 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Kyler Murray Pass to Michael Wilson for Two-Point Conversion)21–21
- Q38:42Michael Carter 6 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)13–21
- Q20:16Julio Jones 22 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)6–21
- Q21:50Matt Prater 34 Yd Field Goal6–14
- Q211:44Sydney Brown 99 Yd Interception Return (Jake Elliott Kick)3–14
- Q10:36Julio Jones 12 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)3–7
- Q15:09Matt Prater 28 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:01James Conner 5 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Kyler Murray Pass to Michael Wilson for Two-Point Conversion)ARI 21 – 21 PHI · ARI 9% → 34% +26ARI 9% → 34%+26 pts
- Q49:55Dallas Goedert 9 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)ARI 21 – 28 PHI · PHI 62% → 92% +30PHI 62% → 92%+30 pts
- Q45:26Michael Wilson 5 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)ARI 28 – 28 PHI · ARI 5% → 41% +37ARI 5% → 41%+37 pts
- Q42:33Jake Elliott 43 Yd Field GoalARI 28 – 31 PHI · PHI 56% → 86% +30PHI 56% → 86%+30 pts
- Q40:32James Conner 2 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)ARI 35 – 31 PHI · ARI 2% → >99% +98ARI 2% → >99%+98 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Eagles 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -9.5
- PHI 80%
- Fair odds
- PHI -342
- ARI +342 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 19.3 – 28.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1378 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −5 | — | ARI: Kyler Murray, usually Joshua Dobbs · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +244 Elo | PHI 80.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 77.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3218.3 | Points scored | 26.17th of 32 |
| 31st of 3226.9 | Points allowed | 24.425th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−8.5 | Margin | +1.710th of 32 |
| 24th of 324.96 | Yards per play | 5.4510th of 32 |
| 29th of 325.67 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3721st of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–7 | Road vs home | 6–14th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.