Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing24/34, 317 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing20 CAR, 87 YDS, 3 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving5 REC, 118 YDS
Giants- Tyrod TaylorPassing27/41, 319 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tyrod TaylorRushing6 CAR, 40 YDS
- Darius SlaytonReceiving4 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:27Gunner Olszewski 94 Yd Punt Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–25
- Q412:03Kyren Williams 28 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik PAT failed)26–19
- Q413:24Mason Crosby 32 Yd Field Goal20–19
- Q34:39Darius Slayton 80 Yd pass from Tyrod Taylor (Mason Crosby PAT failed)20–16
- Q310:17Kyren Williams 2 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik PAT failed)20–10
- Q20:00Mason Crosby 31 Yd Field Goal14–10
- Q21:44Cooper Kupp 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)14–7
- Q213:03Wan'Dale Robinson 24 Yd Run (Mason Crosby Kick)7–7
- Q13:07Kyren Williams 4 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:07Kyren Williams 4 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik Kick)LAR 7 – 0 NYG · LAR 59% → 76% +17LAR 59% → 76%+17 pts
- Q213:03Wan'Dale Robinson 24 Yd Run (Mason Crosby Kick)LAR 7 – 7 NYG · NYG 23% → 42% +18NYG 23% → 42%+18 pts
- Q21:44Cooper Kupp 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)LAR 14 – 7 NYG · LAR 57% → 78% +21LAR 57% → 78%+21 pts
- Q412:03Kyren Williams 28 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik PAT failed)LAR 26 – 19 NYG · LAR 60% → 86% +26LAR 60% → 86%+26 pts
- Q43:27Gunner Olszewski 94 Yd Punt Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)LAR 26 – 25 NYG · NYG 3% → 37% +34NYG 3% → 37%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rams 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -4
- LAR 64%
- Fair odds
- LAR -150
- NYG +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 23.0 – 20.1 NYG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1382 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | +21 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · NYG: Tyrod Taylor, usually Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +100 Elo | LAR 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYG 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 59.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3223.8 | Points scored | 14.331st of 32 |
| 19th of 3222.1 | Points allowed | 24.727th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+1.7 | Margin | −10.532nd of 32 |
| 6th of 325.62 | Yards per play | 4.2831st of 32 |
| 19th of 325.30 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6627th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 12th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 3–321st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.