Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing25/36, 367 YDS, 2 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing13 CAR, 61 YDS
- Puka NacuaReceiving9 REC, 181 YDS, 1 TD
Lions- Jared GoffPassing22/27, 277 YDS, 1 TD
- David MontgomeryRushing14 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving7 REC, 110 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q48:10Brett Maher 29 Yd Field Goal23–24
- Q32:33Brett Maher 27 Yd Field Goal20–24
- Q38:41Michael Badgley 54 Yd Field Goal17–24
- Q24:02Tutu Atwell 38 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brett Maher Kick)17–21
- Q27:12Sam LaPorta 2 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley Kick)10–21
- Q213:24Puka Nacua 50 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brett Maher Kick)10–14
- Q11:31Jahmyr Gibbs 10 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)3–14
- Q14:26Brett Maher 24 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q19:30David Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:30David Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)LAR 0 – 7 DET · DET 59% → 76% +16DET 59% → 76%+16 pts
- Q213:24Puka Nacua 50 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brett Maher Kick)LAR 10 – 14 DET · LAR 15% → 31% +15LAR 15% → 31%+15 pts
- Q27:12Sam LaPorta 2 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Michael Badgley Kick)LAR 10 – 21 DET · DET 70% → 86% +16DET 70% → 86%+16 pts
- Q24:02Tutu Atwell 38 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brett Maher Kick)LAR 17 – 21 DET · LAR 13% → 30% +17LAR 13% → 30%+17 pts
- Q48:10Brett Maher 29 Yd Field GoalLAR 23 – 24 DET · LAR 22% → 40% +18LAR 22% → 40%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lions 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3
- DET 61%
- Fair odds
- DET -148
- LAR +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 22.4 – 25.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1603 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | — | LAR: Matthew Stafford · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +77 Elo | DET 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 59.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3223.8 | Points scored | 27.15th of 32 |
| 19th of 3222.2 | Points allowed | 23.223rd of 32 |
| 11th of 32+1.6 | Margin | +3.98th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.58 | Yards per play | 5.903rd of 32 |
| 19th of 325.33 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5126th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 9th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 6–25th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.