Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Carson WentzPassing17/24, 163 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Carson WentzRushing17 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- Brycen HopkinsReceiving2 REC, 47 YDS
49ers- Sam DarnoldPassing16/26, 189 YDS, 1 TD
- Elijah MitchellRushing14 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- Chris ConleyReceiving3 REC, 69 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:56Carson Wentz 12 Yd Run (Carson Wentz Pass to Tutu Atwell for Two-Point Conversion)21–20
- Q34:45Tyler Johnson 8 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Brett Maher PAT failed)13–20
- Q20:11Ronnie Bell 5 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jake Moody PAT failed)7–20
- Q26:59Sam Darnold 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)7–14
- Q11:53Puka Nacua 19 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Brett Maher Kick)7–7
- Q17:27Elijah Mitchell 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:27Elijah Mitchell 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)LAR 0 – 7 SF · SF 62% → 78% +16SF 62% → 78%+16 pts
- Q11:53Puka Nacua 19 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Brett Maher Kick)LAR 7 – 7 SF · LAR 22% → 39% +17LAR 22% → 39%+17 pts
- Q26:59Sam Darnold 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)LAR 7 – 14 SF · SF 60% → 79% +19SF 60% → 79%+19 pts
- Q34:45Tyler Johnson 8 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Brett Maher PAT failed)LAR 13 – 20 SF · LAR 5% → 17% +12LAR 5% → 17%+12 pts
- Q44:56Carson Wentz 12 Yd Run (Carson Wentz Pass to Tutu Atwell for Two-Point Conversion)LAR 21 – 20 SF · LAR 5% → 55% +50LAR 5% → 55%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
49ers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -5
- SF 67%
- Fair odds
- SF -169
- LAR +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 21.2 – 24.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1687 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −115 | −178 | LAR: Carson Wentz, usually Matthew Stafford · SF: Sam Darnold, usually Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +120 Elo | SF 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 62.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3223.9 | Points scored | 29.42nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3222.3 | Points allowed | 17.32nd of 32 |
| 10th of 32+1.6 | Margin | +12.11st of 32 |
| 6th of 325.67 | Yards per play | 6.701st of 32 |
| 19th of 325.34 | Yards allowed per play | 5.037th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 12th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAR 0–1 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.