Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing21/34, 194 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing18 CAR, 108 YDS
- Romeo DoubsReceiving4 REC, 83 YDS
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing23/39, 252 YDS, 1 TD
- Christian McCaffreyRushing17 CAR, 98 YDS, 2 TD
- George KittleReceiving4 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:07Christian McCaffrey 6 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)21–24
- Q414:56Jake Moody 52 Yd Field Goal21–17
- Q35:23Tucker Kraft 2 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Jordan Love Pass to Aaron Jones for Two-Point Conversion)21–14
- Q37:39Christian McCaffrey 39 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)13–14
- Q39:27Bo Melton 19 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)13–7
- Q24:09Anders Carlson 29 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q28:42George Kittle 32 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)3–7
- Q17:22Anders Carlson 29 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:42George Kittle 32 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)GB 3 – 7 SF · SF 53% → 73% +20SF 53% → 73%+20 pts
- Q39:27Bo Melton 19 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 13 – 7 SF · GB 37% → 64% +27GB 37% → 64%+27 pts
- Q37:39Christian McCaffrey 39 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)GB 13 – 14 SF · SF 35% → 63% +28SF 35% → 63%+28 pts
- Q35:23Tucker Kraft 2 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Jordan Love Pass to Aaron Jones for Two-Point Conversion)GB 21 – 14 SF · GB 37% → 70% +33GB 37% → 70%+33 pts
- Q41:07Christian McCaffrey 6 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)GB 21 – 24 SF · SF 4% → 92% +89SF 4% → 92%+89 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
49ers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -4.5
- SF 66%
- Fair odds
- SF -183
- GB +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 20.7 – 25.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1602 | 1675 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +8 | GB: Jordan Love · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +118 Elo | SF 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 64.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3222.5 | Points scored | 28.93rd of 32 |
| 10th of 3220.6 | Points allowed | 17.53rd of 32 |
| 10th of 32+1.9 | Margin | +11.43rd of 32 |
| 8th of 325.58 | Yards per play | 6.611st of 32 |
| 20th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 4.987th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 15th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.