Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing30/39, 241 YDS, 1 TD
- Isiah PachecoRushing24 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis KelceReceiving11 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing20/37, 272 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Lamar JacksonRushing8 CAR, 54 YDS
- Zay FlowersReceiving5 REC, 115 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:34Justin Tucker 43 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q20:04Harrison Butker 52 Yd Field Goal17–7
- Q210:56Isiah Pacheco 2 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)14–7
- Q14:58Zay Flowers 30 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)7–7
- Q17:41Travis Kelce 19 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:41Travis Kelce 19 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 7 – 0 BAL · KC 32% → 50% +18KC 32% → 50%+18 pts
- Q14:58Zay Flowers 30 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)KC 7 – 7 BAL · BAL 49% → 68% +19BAL 49% → 68%+19 pts
- Q210:56Isiah Pacheco 2 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 14 – 7 BAL · KC 34% → 54% +21KC 34% → 54%+21 pts
- Q20:04Harrison Butker 52 Yd Field GoalKC 17 – 7 BAL · KC 60% → 70% +10KC 60% → 70%+10 pts
- Q42:34Justin Tucker 43 Yd Field GoalKC 17 – 10 BAL · BAL <1% → 2% +2BAL <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ravens 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -7
- BAL 73%
- Fair odds
- BAL -228
- KC +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 18.2 – 24.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1614 | 1749 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +7 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +172 Elo | BAL 72.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 69.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3221.8 | Points scored | 28.44th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3217.3 | Points allowed | 16.51st of 32 |
| 6th of 32+4.5 | Margin | +11.91st of 32 |
| 9th of 325.53 | Yards per play | 5.854th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.71 | Yards allowed per play | 4.623rd of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 3rd of 326–2 | Road vs home | 6–37th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.