Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing23/36, 258 YDS, 2 TD
- Zack MossRushing12 CAR, 34 YDS
- Mike GesickiReceiving7 REC, 91 YDS
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing18/25, 151 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Isiah PachecoRushing19 CAR, 90 YDS
- Rashee RiceReceiving5 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Harrison Butker 51 Yd Field Goal25–26
- Q49:28Evan McPherson 53 Yd Field Goal25–23
- Q414:40Chamarri Conner 38 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–23
- Q32:16Andrei Iosivas 3 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson PAT failed)22–17
- Q38:21Wanya Morris 1 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)16–17
- Q21:33Evan McPherson 48 Yd Field Goal16–10
- Q24:19Evan McPherson 33 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q28:50Rashee Rice 44 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)10–10
- Q212:04Andrei Iosivas 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)10–3
- Q12:11Harrison Butker 19 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q110:41Evan McPherson 22 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:50Rashee Rice 44 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)CIN 10 – 10 KC · KC 48% → 69% +21KC 48% → 69%+21 pts
- Q38:21Wanya Morris 1 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)CIN 16 – 17 KC · KC 41% → 69% +27KC 41% → 69%+27 pts
- Q32:16Andrei Iosivas 3 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson PAT failed)CIN 22 – 17 KC · CIN 33% → 60% +27CIN 33% → 60%+27 pts
- Q414:40Chamarri Conner 38 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)CIN 22 – 23 KC · KC 37% → 67% +30KC 37% → 67%+30 pts
- Q40:00Harrison Butker 51 Yd Field GoalCIN 25 – 26 KC · KC 0% → 100% +100KC 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -8
- KC 76%
- Fair odds
- KC -271
- CIN +271 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 17.4 – 24.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1642 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −1 | +5 | CIN: Joe Burrow · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +200 Elo | KC 76.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 73.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3221.5 | Points scored | 21.815th of 32 |
| 21st of 3222.6 | Points allowed | 17.32nd of 32 |
| 17th of 32−1.1 | Margin | +4.56th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.17 | Yards per play | 5.539th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.04 | Yards allowed per play | 4.715th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 4–421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 0–1 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.