New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Jacoby BrissettPassing15/24, 121 YDS
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing25 CAR, 120 YDS, 1 TD
- Austin HooperReceiving2 REC, 31 YDS
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing21/29, 164 YDS
- Zack MossRushing9 CAR, 44 YDS, 1 TD
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving6 REC, 62 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q46:14Evan McPherson 51 Yd Field Goal16–10
- Q48:46Joey Slye 37 Yd Field Goal16–7
- Q31:10Zack Moss 5 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)13–7
- Q311:34Joey Slye 35 Yd Field Goal13–0
- Q20:00Joey Slye 32 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q214:58Rhamondre Stevenson 3 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:58Rhamondre Stevenson 3 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)NE 7 – 0 CIN · NE 33% → 53% +20NE 33% → 53%+20 pts
- Q20:00Joey Slye 32 Yd Field GoalNE 10 – 0 CIN · NE 60% → 70% +10NE 60% → 70%+10 pts
- Q31:10Zack Moss 5 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)NE 13 – 7 CIN · CIN 9% → 32% +23CIN 9% → 32%+23 pts
- Q48:46Joey Slye 37 Yd Field GoalNE 16 – 7 CIN · NE 79% → 90% +11NE 79% → 90%+11 pts
- Q46:14Evan McPherson 51 Yd Field GoalNE 16 – 10 CIN · CIN 6% → 16% +10CIN 6% → 16%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bengals 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -6.5
- CIN 72%
- Fair odds
- CIN -227
- NE +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 17.9 – 23.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1393 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −1 | −2 | NE: Jacoby Brissett, usually Mac Jones · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +164 Elo | CIN 72.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 69.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3213.9 | Points scored | 21.516th of 32 |
| 15th of 3221.5 | Points allowed | 22.621st of 32 |
| 29th of 32−7.6 | Margin | −1.117th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.60 | Yards per play | 5.1717th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.70 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0432nd of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 6–37th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.