Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Justin FieldsPassing17/23, 156 YDS
- Najee HarrisRushing20 CAR, 70 YDS
- George PickensReceiving6 REC, 85 YDS
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing16/26, 155 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing18 CAR, 68 YDS
- Ray-Ray McCloud IIIReceiving4 REC, 52 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:28Chris Boswell 25 Yd Field Goal18–10
- Q30:25Chris Boswell 40 Yd Field Goal15–10
- Q37:45Chris Boswell 56 Yd Field Goal12–10
- Q20:00Chris Boswell 44 Yd Field Goal9–10
- Q20:32Kyle Pitts 12 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)6–10
- Q212:54Chris Boswell 51 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q14:37Chris Boswell 57 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q19:06Younghoe Koo 24 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:54Chris Boswell 51 Yd Field GoalPIT 6 – 3 ATL · PIT 54% → 63% +9PIT 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q20:32Kyle Pitts 12 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)PIT 6 – 10 ATL · ATL 36% → 60% +24ATL 36% → 60%+24 pts
- Q20:00Chris Boswell 44 Yd Field GoalPIT 9 – 10 ATL · PIT 40% → 50% +11PIT 40% → 50%+11 pts
- Q37:45Chris Boswell 56 Yd Field GoalPIT 12 – 10 ATL · PIT 49% → 61% +12PIT 49% → 61%+12 pts
- Q30:25Chris Boswell 40 Yd Field GoalPIT 15 – 10 ATL · PIT 62% → 75% +13PIT 62% → 75%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Steelers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -2
- PIT 57%
- Fair odds
- PIT -123
- ATL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 21.4 – 20.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +29 | +26 | PIT: Justin Fields, usually Kenny Pickett · ATL: Kirk Cousins, usually Desmond Ridder (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +52 Elo | PIT 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3217.9 | Points scored | 18.926th of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.1 | Points allowed | 21.918th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−1.2 | Margin | −3.123rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.03 | Yards per play | 5.2414th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.42 | Yards allowed per play | 5.039th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 5th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.