Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing20/29, 241 YDS, 2 TD
- Bijan RobinsonRushing14 CAR, 97 YDS
- Darnell MooneyReceiving3 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing23/30, 183 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Saquon BarkleyRushing22 CAR, 95 YDS
- DeVonta SmithReceiving7 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:34Drake London 7 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)22–21
- Q41:39Jake Elliott 28 Yd Field Goal15–21
- Q46:47Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Saquon Barkley Run for Two-Point Conversion)15–18
- Q31:21Darnell Mooney 41 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–10
- Q34:28Jake Elliott 29 Yd Field Goal9–10
- Q310:12Younghoe Koo 34 Yd Field Goal9–7
- Q20:06Younghoe Koo 22 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q25:15DeVonta Smith 7 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)3–7
- Q211:22Younghoe Koo 39 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:15DeVonta Smith 7 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)ATL 3 – 7 PHI · PHI 50% → 72% +22PHI 50% → 72%+22 pts
- Q34:28Jake Elliott 29 Yd Field GoalATL 9 – 10 PHI · PHI 49% → 62% +13PHI 49% → 62%+13 pts
- Q31:21Darnell Mooney 41 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)ATL 15 – 10 PHI · ATL 39% → 67% +28ATL 39% → 67%+28 pts
- Q46:47Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Saquon Barkley Run for Two-Point Conversion)ATL 15 – 18 PHI · PHI 20% → 75% +54PHI 20% → 75%+54 pts
- Q40:34Drake London 7 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 22 – 21 PHI · ATL <1% → 73% +73ATL <1% → 73%+73 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Eagles 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -4
- PHI 64%
- Fair odds
- PHI -169
- ATL +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 20.7 – 24.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +19 | — | ATL: Kirk Cousins, usually Desmond Ridder · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +101 Elo | PHI 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3218.9 | Points scored | 25.57th of 32 |
| 18th of 3221.9 | Points allowed | 25.230th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−3.1 | Margin | +0.315th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.24 | Yards per play | 5.4212th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.03 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4824th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 6–25th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.