Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing17/34, 260 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing16 CAR, 84 YDS
- Jayden ReedReceiving4 REC, 138 YDS, 1 TD
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing20/34, 278 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Saquon BarkleyRushing24 CAR, 109 YDS, 2 TD
- A.J. BrownReceiving5 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:27Jake Elliott 21 Yd Field Goal29–34
- Q47:52Brayden Narveson 26 Yd Field Goal29–31
- Q34:26Saquon Barkley 2 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)26–31
- Q311:55Christian Watson 2 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)26–24
- Q314:09A.J. Brown 67 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)19–24
- Q20:00Jake Elliott 38 Yd Field Goal19–17
- Q25:11Jayden Reed 70 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)19–14
- Q25:34Saquon Barkley 11 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)12–14
- Q210:16Jayden Reed 33 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)12–7
- Q212:38Saquon Barkley 18 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)6–7
- Q13:01Brayden Narveson 23 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q18:26Brayden Narveson 31 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:34Saquon Barkley 11 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)GB 12 – 14 PHI · PHI 28% → 50% +22PHI 28% → 50%+22 pts
- Q25:11Jayden Reed 70 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)GB 19 – 14 PHI · GB 50% → 72% +22GB 50% → 72%+22 pts
- Q314:09A.J. Brown 67 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)GB 19 – 24 PHI · PHI 37% → 62% +25PHI 37% → 62%+25 pts
- Q311:55Christian Watson 2 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brayden Narveson Kick)GB 26 – 24 PHI · GB 37% → 63% +26GB 37% → 63%+26 pts
- Q34:26Saquon Barkley 2 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)GB 26 – 31 PHI · PHI 36% → 66% +30PHI 36% → 66%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Packers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -3.5
- GB 62%
- Fair odds
- GB -143
- PHI +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 24.5 – 22.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | GB: Jordan Love · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +85 Elo | GB 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 58.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3222.5 | Points scored | 25.57th of 32 |
| 10th of 3220.6 | Points allowed | 25.230th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+1.9 | Margin | +0.315th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.58 | Yards per play | 5.4212th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4824th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.