Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing29/38, 311 YDS, 1 INT
- Saquon BarkleyRushing17 CAR, 147 YDS, 2 TD
- Dallas GoedertReceiving10 REC, 170 YDS
Saints- Derek CarrPassing14/25, 142 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Alvin KamaraRushing26 CAR, 87 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving6 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:01Saquon Barkley 4 Yd Run (Saquon Barkley Run for Two-Point Conversion)15–12
- Q42:03Chris Olave 13 Yd pass from Derek Carr7–12
- Q49:49Blake Grupe 38 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q413:17Saquon Barkley 65 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)7–3
- Q16:51Blake Grupe 34 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:51Blake Grupe 34 Yd Field GoalPHI 0 – 3 NO · NO 58% → 65% +8NO 58% → 65%+8 pts
- Q413:17Saquon Barkley 65 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 7 – 3 NO · PHI 31% → 67% +36PHI 31% → 67%+36 pts
- Q49:49Blake Grupe 38 Yd Field GoalPHI 7 – 6 NO · NO 29% → 47% +18NO 29% → 47%+18 pts
- Q42:03Chris Olave 13 Yd pass from Derek CarrPHI 7 – 12 NO · NO 38% → 96% +58NO 38% → 96%+58 pts
- Q41:01Saquon Barkley 4 Yd Run (Saquon Barkley Run for Two-Point Conversion)PHI 15 – 12 NO · PHI <1% → 92% +92PHI <1% → 92%+92 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Saints 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- NO -2.5
- ML PHI +125 / NO -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -5.5
- NO 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.2 pts
- NO: Elo 69.3%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NO -139
- PHI +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 23.0 – 25.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1598 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | PHI: Jalen Hurts · NO: Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +142 Elo | NO 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 65.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 58.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3225.5 | Points scored | 23.69th of 32 |
| 30th of 3225.2 | Points allowed | 19.28th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +4.47th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.42 | Yards per play | 5.1119th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.48 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2817th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 9th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.