New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Derek CarrPassing28/36, 239 YDS, 1 INT
- Alvin KamaraRushing19 CAR, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- Chris OlaveReceiving8 REC, 87 YDS
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing21/35, 238 YDS, 1 INT
- Tyler AllgeierRushing8 CAR, 60 YDS
- Drake LondonReceiving6 REC, 64 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:02Younghoe Koo 58 Yd Field Goal24–26
- Q41:00Alvin Kamara 1 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)24–23
- Q410:09Younghoe Koo 42 Yd Field Goal17–23
- Q31:03Blake Grupe 43 Yd Field Goal17–20
- Q36:46Younghoe Koo 44 Yd Field Goal14–20
- Q27:54Troy Andersen 47 Yd Interception Return (Younghoe Koo Kick)14–17
- Q29:57Younghoe Koo 53 Yd Field Goal14–10
- Q213:42Taysom Hill 5 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)14–7
- Q16:39Taysom Hill 2 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)7–7
- Q111:13KhaDarel Hodge Fumble Recovery in End Zone (Younghoe Koo Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:39Taysom Hill 2 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 7 – 7 ATL · NO 28% → 46% +18NO 28% → 46%+18 pts
- Q213:42Taysom Hill 5 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 14 – 7 ATL · NO 46% → 66% +20NO 46% → 66%+20 pts
- Q27:54Troy Andersen 47 Yd Interception Return (Younghoe Koo Kick)NO 14 – 17 ATL · ATL 41% → 63% +22ATL 41% → 63%+22 pts
- Q41:00Alvin Kamara 1 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 24 – 23 ATL · NO <1% → 68% +68NO <1% → 68%+68 pts
- Q40:02Younghoe Koo 58 Yd Field GoalNO 24 – 26 ATL · ATL <1% → >99% +100ATL <1% → >99%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Falcons 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -2.5
- ML NO +120 / ATL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 42%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -3.5
- ATL 38%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 37.6%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -121
- NO +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 20.0 – 22.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +29 | NO: Derek Carr · ATL: Kirk Cousins, usually Desmond Ridder (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +88 Elo | NO 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 58.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 54.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3234.3 | Points scored | 16.326th of 32 |
| 5th of 3214.7 | Points allowed | 20.313th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+19.7 | Margin | −4.021st of 32 |
| 7th of 325.95 | Yards per play | 5.6213th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.35 | Yards allowed per play | 4.7610th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 0–220th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 1–1 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.